Party Rules and the Electoral College

Although there are a few small states voting between now and June 5, there's really not a whole lot going on until California, New Jersey and some other states vote on that date. This is a good time to take a breather and re-assess the Presidential campaign. While it's easy to go on and on about why this or why that, one thing that many media sources have ignored is how party rules have affected the races.

GOP

The easiest race to discuss, largely because it's over. Everyone's dropped out except Donald Trump, and he'll probably clinch the nomination in the next month. So how did Donald Trump win? It's a combination of factors, including media coverage and "outsider" status, but let's look at GOP delegate rules.

Notably, the GOP doesn't have a national guideline. Instead, all 50 states (plus the territories and D.C.) get to choose their own rules on how the delegates are divvied up. What this means in practice is that many states give bonuses to whoever wins the primary or caucus, even if that person doesn't reach a majority. So in the early part of the race, when there were 17 candidates, the GOP vote was split dramatically. Trump, with his passionate supporters, remained steady at about 35 percent, give or take. However, the delegate rules of most states gave him a cushy bonus even though he had merely earned a plurality. So he got bonus points, even though (by sheer math alone), the majority of people had voted against him. It wasn't until his home state of New York, when his opponents were the increasingly desperate Ted Cruz and John Kasich, that he actually crossed the 50 percent mark.

If the GOP had picked its candidate with the same rules as Democrats (proportionality), we would practically be guaranteed of a contested convention. The race would still be on. 

Democrats

The Democratic race is still ongoing, but that's a little misleading. While Bernie Sanders still has a chance, and he has vowed to fight until and through the convention, he's fighting a battle that's already over — he just hasn't realized it yet. Sanders would have to win every remaining state by a 2:1 advantage to catch up. And that includes winning a couple states with minorities, like California, that he simply hasn't won consistently. Yes, he won Indiana this week — but Hillary also didn't spend a dollar on the race because she's saving up for the general election.

The reason why he has to win every state by a 2:1 advantage is because the Democrat rules are set by a national standard — each state distributes their delegates by proportion. So take Wyoming, for instance. The state had 14 delegates. Bernie won the state 55-45 percent. However, his results weren't high enough for eight delegates — at the end of the day, he and Clinton both won seven delegates. Since Clinton racked up a big lead through the big states and the Deep South, she has been kind of coasting the last month or two. A big bone to pick with Sanders fans has been super delegates, but that's also a losing battle. Even if you give her the super delegates that correspond with the states she won, then she'll clinch the nomination after California/New Jersey on June 5. It's over, but Sanders insists on playing out the string.

If the Democrats had picked its candidate with the same rules as the GOP (bonuses for winning states), then Hillary's lead would be three times larger and a nomination nearly clinched without super delegates. The race would be over.

General Election and its effects

Provided she vanquishes Bernie Sanders and picks up a good share of his voters, Hillary Clinton is your next President. She's one of the most disliked candidates ever — but she's also going to be running against THE most disliked candidate ever. To many, she's the lesser of two evils. I've already taken a look at the electoral college in a past blog entry, but let me sum it up here: Not factoring in candidates, Democrats are in good position to win the White House. Donald Trump is not the strong national figure that can unite against the Democratic advantage. (There was one possible strategy I found convincing for Trump: Lose every state from Obama's tenure, except flip four Rust Belt states: Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania. But PA and MI haven't been red since 1988 and Wisconsin hasn't been red since 1984, so it's an uphill climb.)

One thing to watch is how much Democrats can take advantage of the GOP-Trump ties. GOP senatorial candidates will now have to defend being "the party of Trump." The Democrats only need four Senate seats to flip (or five if they lose the Presidency) to win back the Senate. Of the 10 "toss-up" seats not considered safe, only one of those is currently a Democrat — and that's Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid's seat (he's retiring). On the other hand, the House is probably too much to flip — 34 of 36 "toss-ups" would have to switch parties for the Democrats to take it over.

Summary Judgments

Let's have a moment of silence for the shortest run for vice president in the history of our country: Carly Fiorina! She was a vice presidential candidate for less than a week.   •  •  •  You'd think Chris Matthews would know that he's around a hot microphone. But nope. He went and opened his big mouth about how attractive he thought Melania Trump is while he didn't think anyone could hear him.    •  •  •   Evie's been taking flash cards with letters on them to her day care teacher and saying what they are. I've been testing her to see which letters she knows, and she knows D, P, K, and A for sure. The others are either intermittent or she doesn't know them.   •  •  •  I'm still running as training for a 5K in June. This week, I've run 2.5 miles twice. The two mile mark was all mental. The 2.5 mile mark is more a physical issue. I've made it, but I've had to make stops each time for different reasons. Adding that final mile to 3/4 of a mile has been the most difficult part so far.