But the midterms will be important. If the Democrats flip both chambers, I expect they'll push impeachment. If they flip just one chamber, they'll force major changes in governance and make President Trump an effective lame duck until 2020. If they flip only the House, they may write articles of impeachment that ultimately go nowhere in the Senate. That's all to be decided by this year's midterm elections.
Before I get into some of the major changes and news, I want to make one key point: I will guarantee that, barring a major terrorist attack or some earth-shattering news, that Democrats will pick up seats in the House. It's only a matter of how many. This is because in the midterms, the president's party almost always loses seats. I said almost always, because the GOP actually won seats following the 9/11 attacks. There are a few other exceptions like that. But in modern American history, there has traditionally been an opposite-party push during the midterms of some size. Alright. With that out of the way, let's talk midterms.
Senate Unlikely to Flip
Mitch McConnell is more likely to keep his seat than Paul Ryan. Seats in the House are up every two years, and seats in the Senate are up every six. Thanks to the seemingly random way it's happened, the 34 seats up this year include roughly 26 that caucus with the Democrats. Simply, this year's midterms are being held on Democratic ground, and there are vulnerable Democrats in many locations. That's not to say it's impossible for Democrats to flip the Senate. Roy Moore lost an Alabama Senate race to Doug Jones to make the current balance 51-49. But if you look at which seats are in play, it's just incredibly unlikely barring a Democratic wave.
To be specific: In order to flip the Senate, Democrats need to win two more races than they lose. There aren't a lot of opportunities. According to a couple smart political sites (Larry Sabato and Cook Political Report), there are 2-3 vulnerable Republicans: Jeff Flake in Arizona, Dean Heller in Nevada and maaaaaaaybe Bob Corker's empty seat in Tennessee. After that, it's a stretch to Ted Cruz in Texas. The other five GOP seats are safe. But overlooked in that is that Democrats would have to hold onto all of their contested Senate seats. And there are 4-6 in jeopardy: Claire McCaskill here in Missouri (real trouble), Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota (just got a serious GOP challenger), Indiana's Joe Donnelly, West Virginia's Joe Manchin (real trouble), Tina Smith in Al Franken's old seat in Minnesota (I think this is safer than projected), and Bill Nelson in Florida (on the safer side).
All told, it means the Democrats would have to get really lucky in some unlikely places to win control of the Senate.
House is up for grabs
I've read about five different sites talking about the House. Almost everyone says the House flipping is either a coin flip or barely edged in one way or another. Democrats need to flip +24 seats (Meaning they need to flip 24 more than they lose). That's in the range of a normal midterm flip. If results from other special elections (which show a sizable Democratic swing) hold up, then that may be within striking distance. But there's another thing working against them: Republicans were in control of redistricting efforts across the country in 2010, meaning they largely gave themselves advantages in states like North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It's possible for Democrats, but it's also an uphill battle. Winning the coin flip is possible, but it's also a weighted coin.
Pennsylvania redistricting analysis
It didn't get a lot of press coverage, but the GOP gerrymandering in Pennsylvania was overturned and a new map, drawn up by the state Supreme Court, makes major changes. I've seen some reporting that it helps Democrats, and while that is true, that's the opposite tack that the reporters should have taken. The GOP had created an unconstitutional advantage in their gerrymandering, and that advantage was taken away. The new map gets rid of the weird shapes for a much prettier map.
Anyway, the point is that there were a few changes. Two open seats that were already targets for Democrats became more Democrat-leaning after the redistricting. Another seat that leaned GOP now leans Democrat. So that's three seats that are FAR likely to switch parties. Two more seats went from safe GOP seats to just leaning GOP. Let's be conservative and say the Democrats win three seats from Pennsylvania. That's 1/8 of what they need to flip the House. Maybe they get four or five, which would give the Democrats a little breathing space in their race to 24.
The Race for the Rest
Using Sabato's Crystal Ball, there is a pathway to Democrats getting to 24 (they use 25, because they expect a GOP pick-up in Minnesota). Let's take a look at how I view their breakdown, with my short analysis in italics:
1) Pick up four open seats (AZ-2, CA-49, FL-27 and NJ-2) in Democrat-leaning areas. Book it. Three were in Clinton-won districts, and the fourth is in New Jersey. Conservative: 3 seats Educated guess: 4 Optimistic: 4
2) Win three of four open seats (CA-39, MI-11, NJ-11 and WA-8) that are considered toss-ups. Reasonable. Two are Clinton-won districts, and the other two includes a close race with a strong Democratic candidate. Conservative: 2 seats Educated guess: 3 Optimistic: 4
3) Win three seats from Pennsylvania. I covered this above, except there is one more seat that didn't change in redistricting that will probably be a close race. Conservative: 3 seats Educated guess: 4 Optimistic: 5
4) Beat three of five vulnerable incumbents in Clinton-won districts in California. Pretty self-explanatory. Two were really close last time. A third includes the most pro-Russia representative in the country — not a great fit for a Dem-leaning district. Conservative: 3 seats Educated guess: 3 (I'm skeptical of beating five incumbents, no matter the demographics) Optimistic: 5
5) Beat three of six vulnerable incumbents in Clinton-won districts (CO-6, FL-26, IL-6, MN-3, TX-23 and VA-10). Looking at the partisan leans for those districts, this is a real coin-flip category. The most vulnerable is the Florida seat. Conservative: 1 seat. Educated guess: 3 Optimistic: 4
6) Beat one of three incumbents in Clinton-won but historically Republican districts (NJ-7, TX-7 and TX-32). Ehh.... we're getting into dicey territory here. It's hard to beat incumbents. One of those has won every election by a sizable margin, and that's the one in New Jersey. The most vulnerable is TX-7, which is a GOP-leaning district usually. Conservative: 0 seats. Educated guess: 0 Optimistic: 1 seat.
7) Beat one of two Trump-district freshmen who narrowly won narrow districts (NE-2 and MN-2). Right now, it looks like both races will be rematches from the last election. I don't expect any changes, but it's not impossible. Conservative: 0 seats. Educated guess: 0 Optimistic: 1 seat
8) Win two seats from "Trump York." There are seven seats in discussion here, and it's reasonable, even on the conservative side. All the vulnerable seats are currently held by the GOP. Two are considered toss-ups with strong Democratic challengers. Another district was won by Clinton. Another couple districts are getting strong Democratic challengers in a traditionally blue state. Conservative: 2 seats. Educated guess: 3 Optimistic: 4
9) Win two of four Trump seats with down ballot Democratic DNA (IL-12, KY-6, ME-2 and UT-4). A deeper dive is optimistic for Democrats here. Three of the four have decent Dem candidates, but they're fighting uphill. Conservative: 0 seats. Educated guess: 1 Optimistic: 2
10) Win a seat in Iowa (IA-1 and IA-3). My gut is that Iowa has swung red, where it used to be purple. I'll be happy to be surprised, but I don't expect it. Conservative: 0 Educated guess: 0 Optimistic: 1
11) Win a seat in Kansas (KS-2 and KS-3). Now these districts I know. And though you might be skeptical of Democrat chances in deep red Kansas, you're overlooking it. A Democrat held KS-2 before Lynn Jenkins did, but Jenkins is retiring. The most famous name in the race is former Democratic governor candidate Paul Davis, who actually won the district in his governor race against Brownback. The most recognizable GOP candidates for the empty seat are a couple of state senators, including Caryn Tyson, who I know well (She's very nice, but far-right for a district that tends centrist. She's a lovely person, but her legislative track record has done her few favors.). KS-2 includes some Democratic strongholds, including Topeka and Lawrence, and to a lesser extent the toss-up area of Pittsburg. Davis is likable enough and a well-established name in a weak field of GOP candidates. Don't count it out. As for KS-3, it actually went for Clinton over Trump in 2016. Yoder is vulnerable if he gets the right candidate (a Paul Davis-type), but I don't think any of these candidates are strong enough to do so. Conservative: 0 Educated guess: 1 Optimistic: 1
12) Win one of these eight seats in Trump-won districts in Ohio, North Carolina or Virginia (OH-1, OH-12, NC-2, NC-9, NC-13, VA-2, VA-5 and VA-7). North Carolina is similar to Pennsylvania, in that courts have demanded redistricting. But it's looking unlikely that will be completed by the midterms thanks to the U.S. Supreme Court. If it had, you could expect 1-2 seat flips just in the GOP losing its advantage. As it is, I think VA-2 is in play (it's already a swing district), NC-13 (strong self-funded Democratic challenger) and OH-1 might be. But these are not easy wins. Conservative: 0 Educated guess: 1 Optimistic: 2
In case you're wondering, I added them all up for you, barring no Democrat losses outside of MN-1. Remember, 24 to flip the House.
Conservative: 14 seats
Educated guess: 23 seats (See why the House is considered a coin flip? The N.C. redistricting may matter, too.)
Optimistic: 34 seats
Thoughts on Billy Graham
I read an incredible story yesterday about how the current wave of NBA All-Stars didn't grow up watching Michael Jordan. They knew he was important and watched old clips. They might have watched VHS tapes or known some of the mystique, but they couldn't quite understand what the older generation had seen in him. They said the right things, but they were parroting what they heard rather than having experienced it themselves. They grew up with different heroes (Kobe, Iverson, Vince Carter).
I think the same is true for me and Billy Graham. He's always been past his prime during my lifetime. I know he's important, because of what people tell me, and so I kind of get it, but I didn't grow up with it or experience it myself. He's a legend, and I say that, but I don't quite understand — I grew up with different heroes.
Summary Judgments
I have no idea what President Trump actually wants on guns. He's been all over the place with what he wants and doesn't appear to have a cohesive plan that would pass Congress. He's winging it, to be blunt. One thing: If this has the support of the NRA and gun owners, then it's no longer a question of whether gun regulation/control is a thing that can be done, but rather how much. • • • Here's a live look at NRA-backed politicians considering action after the Parkland shooting:
• • • I didn't run much this week because weather has been terrible. I've also decided to treat March 1 as my start date on truly focusing on running and eating better. Lord help me. • • • A rare story by a child who is not my child: One of the kids' friends at day care is Emrie, whose Mom we ran into tonight. At one point recently, Emrie asked her mom if all dads have no hair (her dad is bald). Before her mom could say that no, some dads have hair, Emrie said "Evie and Roland's dad has hair." Given that my dad is bald, this makes me incredibly happy.
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