You wouldn't know it, but Hillary Clinton has a demographic advantage in the election. She has had a lead in most national polls (until very recently), and she has leads in enough states to likely secure the electoral college. So why does it seem like she's doing so poorly?
The answer is that the Trump campaign — and credit goes to his new campaign chair, Kellyanne Conway, for toning his rhetoric down — has been playing on Clinton's turf rather than the other way around. Rather than the media/public reacting to what Trump has said, Clinton has been playing defense about her health, the "basket of deplorables" line (see below) and the Clinton Foundation. Those are all distractions, I believe, but they are all spokes off the central wheel for Clinton.
And the central issue for Clinton is she's a private person, and we don't like that. When she feels threatened or attacked, she "circles the wagons," according to a friend, and closes rank. She keeps quiet and tries to keep things private, and the public wants answers. My long-held statement stands: when answers aren't apparent, the public fills in our own answers. Once we've made our own answers, when we get answers, we doubt them because we've already filled in the blanks in our minds. We speculate, we assume, and we often assume the worst.
On one hand, Clinton's position is kind of understandable. When she was First Lady, every word she said was scrutinized by the biggest media frenzy in my lifetime with the Lewinsky/impeachment stuff. She's faced down several investigations in which her records were searched with a fine-toothed comb, yet they found nothing. Every time she coughs, people want to know the real story, and aren't satisfied. The only answer that would satisfy is that she's secretly hiding something, I guess. So it's understandable that such scrutiny would lead to being more closed-off.
But the reaction to Clinton's privacy is an accusation of "crookedness" and "liar." We don't know everything about the Clinton Foundation's relation to her time as Secretary of State, so surely something must be nefarious. We don't know everything about her health, so surely she must be hiding something. We don't know everything about her emails (she deleted some!), so surely there must be something terrible hidden in them. We don't know if she's hiding a medical condition, so surely she must be hiding something. It's this sort of hypothetical what-if that drives the narrative.
Hillary Clinton's biggest problem is she's overprotective when it comes to anything that might be scrutinized. And that creates speculation, doubt and fear.
But she is in a campaign against an opponent. And that opponent has said worse things multiple times more than she has. He has also not revealed his tax returns nor revealed a detailed health report (She's at least released her tax returns and has met the health report standards of previous candidates, while his health report is lacking.). He has called people of color terrible things. He has mocked people with disabilities. He has gone after a Gold Star family. He has crafted his own history of events covered by reporters. Here is my point: Hillary Clinton is held to a politician's standard while Donald Trump is held to a reality show standard. She's struggling to meet a politician's standard while he is succeeding at being entertaining, even if he has no idea about what to do if he were elected.
'Basket of Deplorables'
This was supposedly a big mistake by Hillary Clinton this weekend. If you see the quote in context, it makes a world of difference. She said there are two categories of Trump voters: 1) Half are in the "basket of deplorables" — racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic. They're gaining a voice through Trump, but they're ultimately not people you can reason with. 2) People who feel let down by the government, the economy, and feel abandoned by politicians. These people should be understood and empathized with, she said.
The reactions have been confusing to me. I haven't seen anyone deny that Trump attracts a certain amount of those "deplorable" people. Mike Pence said that Trump supporters are "not a basket of anything," which is a weird response and kind of misses the point. He then said that Trump supporters are everyday Americans, which doesn't deny that they can also be racist, xenophobic, etc. There is plenty of documented evidence, polls and otherwise, to suggest that a certain percentage of his supporters are those things. So as far as I can tell, it's not a matter of if Trump has attracted these "deplorable" folks, the issue has really been about what percentage of his support comes from them, which is a wholly different discussion. Further, I've seen some people projecting themselves into the "basket of deplorables," which is another weird response. "Hey, Hillary! Are you talking about me?!?" If you're not racist/sexist/homophobic/xenophobic, she's not talking about you. Why are you mad? I'm honestly confused about what the problem is with what she said. This article even goes so far as to agree with her thesis (a certain percentage of Trump voters are racist, xenophobic, etc.) while denouncing her because she's going to need to represent those interests, too. I just don't understand that argument, which can be summed this way: The racist/bigoted/Islamophobic/etc. people aren't going anywhere, so don't insult them! Surely LBJ and Abraham Lincoln should have worked with the racists instead of making the Emancipation Proclamation and the Civil Rights Act! I am waiting to see why this got so much attention.
This Week in Horrifying Things Trump Has Said
Bragging that Trump Tower was the new tallest building in Lower Manhattan literally hours after 9/11 happened
Host: You have one of the landmark buildings down in the financial district, 40 Wall Street. Did you have any damage? What's happening down there?
Trump: 40 Wall Street actually was the second-tallest building in downtown Manhattan, and it was actually, before the World Trade Center, was the tallest. And then, when they built the World Trade Center, it became known as the second-tallest. And now it's the tallest.
Election Update
The tightening that I've been marking for a few weeks seemed to stop for a bit, then the pneumonia hit over the weekend for Clinton, and her numbers slid a bit more. With the campaign now with less than 10 weeks to go (thankfully), I'm lowering my standards a bit for whether a state is red, blue or toss-up (though it doesn't make much difference this week). Next week, I'll take an in-depth look at the electoral college, and pathways to victory.
Presidential
The best polls of Georgia show it's a close race. They also have unanimously shown a Trump lead, albeit small. It moves red. Nevada and Florida are neck and neck. Ohio had three good polls this week, showing a 7-point Clinton lead, and then two showing a 5-point Trump lead. Arizona's polls consistently show a Trump lead, but it's also been consistently under 3 points. It stays red for now. Iowa remains super-close, but I'd give a slight edge to Trump. North Carolina is super-close, but I'd give Clinton a slight edge. Michigan had more polls that show it's staying blue. Same with Pennsylvania and Virginia. Non-Ipsos polls show Wisconsin's not close, neither is New Hampshire. Georgia swings red. Toss-up states: Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, Florida, North Carolina, both Nebraska and Maine's 2nd electoral district. States on the watch list: Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona. Electoral college: 272 Clinton, 190 Trump, 270 to win.
Senate
There's been more movement in the Senate races. It was a bounce back week for GOP candidates. Another poll shows a decent lead for Burr in North Carolina. Two good polls of New Hampshire show a lead for Ayotte there. Nevada remains within two points, with an edge to the Republican, Joe Heck. Pennsylvania has had two polls showing a one-point race, so it's in "No Clue" status. I am feeling more confident in calling Indiana blue after a recent poll there. New Hampshire and North Carolina swing red. Pennsylvania moves to No Clue. No Clue: Nevada and Pennsylvania. Current outlook +3 Democrat, not enough for a majority.
Summary Judgments
The Galapagos Tortoise only had two males left in the wild 50 years ago, so they borrowed the San Diego Zoo's tortoise, Diego. There are now 2,000 tortoises in Galapagos, and Diego has fathered 40 percent of them. • • • If you can't stand the heat, blame the fire. • • • I went for a 2.5 mile run today. It didn't go great, in that I walked about 1/4-1/2 mile. But I'm still on track for the next 5K on Oct. 9, which I still need to sign up for, now that I think about it. • • • Evie sang most of the ABCs yesterday. Roland knows most of "Twinkle, Twinkle, Little Star." But dare you try to join in and help them out? They will shout "NO!" • • • Roland is in a toddler bed now, too. The pitter-patter of little feet waking up in the morning is cute right now. Like everything children do, give it some time of being done at inappropriate times and I'm sure I'll find it annoying at some point.
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