It's rare that I agree with what Karl Rove says, but he was exactly right about his analysis of the Electoral College recently. In short, Clinton has the advantage in the Electoral College.
First, let's address which states are not at all important to this analysis: AK, HI, CA, NY, OR, WA, ID, MT, NM, OK, KS, NE (with one electoral college vote set aside), ND, SD, TX, AR, LA, IL, KY, TN, AL, MS, WV, MN, MD, DE, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT, ME (with one electoral college vote set aside). These states are not close and we won't spend time entertaining what-ifs. So this is our baseline: 200 electoral college votes for Clinton, 147 for Trump. 270 needed to win (a tie would send it to the House, who would almost assuredly pick Trump).
Would Take Something Really Bad for Trump To Lose
• Utah has a lot of Mormons, and Trump is underperforming there. But when I say "underperforming," that's the same case as Kansas and Texas: Doing worse than an average GOP candidate should, but still winning by high single-digits.
• Missouri used to be a swing state, but it's become reliably right-leaning now. I think Missouri could be won in a democratic landslide, but it's becoming more and more obvious that won't happen.
Electoral College: 200 Clinton, 163 Trump
Would Take A Bigger Turnout/Landslide For One Side to Win
• Georgia may one day go blue — it's becoming a more diverse state, and minorities tend to vote democratic. It'll probably switch in the next 20 years. But it's not there yet.
• Pennsylvania is diverse, but it's also moving more to the right. It's the political opposite of Georgia — it's not there yet. They've not voted GOP since 1988, and I don't see that changing this year, especially not with recent polling data.
• Wisconsin is one of the targets for Trump, but I'm not sure it's a great pick. Although it's a mostly rural, Rust Belt state (Milwaukee excepted), it also hasn't voted for a Republican for president since before I was born. I doubt it changes.
• Arizona looked close in the aftermath of the DNC, but it's another Georgia, I think: Moving more democratic/more diverse because of the Hispanic population, but not there yet.
• Virginia is the last state in this category. It's been getting more and more diverse, and it has reached a point where this is a very likely blue state. Unlike Georgia and Arizona, it's already hit the tipping point. It went for Obama twice, and I don't see that switching.
Electoral College: 243 Clinton, Trump 190
Closer, but Would Be Surprising To Switch
• Michigan is another Trump target, but polls haven't been going his way. In his best days, he's tied, but he's never been ahead. It's key for Clinton to hold Michigan, because it makes it easier for her to get over the 270 mark with almost any combination of remaining states.
• New Hampshire is good Trump territory, based on the primaries. However, it's not great based on polling. It's huge on ground game (advantage: Clinton) and Trump hasn't led in any poll since just after the RNC. It's close, but it's probably blue and inches Clinton closer to the finish line.
Electoral College: 263 Clinton, Trump 190
Remaining Possibilities
So here are the states that remain: Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and the sole electoral votes in Nebraska and Maine. That's 85 electoral votes left. Trump cannot lose Ohio, Florida, Colorado or North Carolina, or it's over — they each have more than 7 electoral college votes and would put Clinton over the edge. This is the clearest I can make it: Trump has to sweep every true toss-up to win.
Clinton can still win even if she loses all of those biggest prizes. She would only have to win either Iowa or Nevada, plus pick up the electoral college vote in Maine or Nebraska and she'd win.
But if the election were today, Trump could actually pull it out. He's leading in Iowa and is probably ahead in Ohio. I think Trump will pick up the electoral votes in Nebraska AND Maine. For the sake of simplicity, let's give him all of those. He'd still need some luck.
Colorado wouldn't seem like a Trump state, but Trump's had the occasional good poll (albeit the most recent was not good for him). North Carolina, Nevada and Florida are all neck-and-neck and could go either way. In fact, two Florida polls released mid-week show Clinton with a small lead.
If I were calling it today, I'd say Clinton takes two of North Carolina, Colorado and Florida. Heck, she might even take just Colorado and clinch it. But here's one weird, frightening possibility: If Trump takes Iowa and Ohio and the sole electoral votes in Nebraska and Maine, then wins North Carolina, Colorado and Florida while Clinton takes Nevada, that's.... 269-269. Heaven help us if that's the case.
Tulsa Has A Problem
Terence Crutcher had his hands up, walking toward his stalled car in the middle of a Tulsa road. He was 40 years old. He was black. He was unarmed. He was shot and killed. I've watched the video, and I agree with the Tulsa Police Chief: This was "disturbing." The Tulsa Police Chief called the Department of Justice. The Tulsa Police Chief has promised justice.
However, he's got a problem on his hands. This was a white officer shooting an unarmed black man. While the officer said she wasn't having cooperation from Crutcher, the video shows otherwise. The officer had her gun trained on him as he walked away from her and toward his car with his hands up. Further, even away from the obvious footage, there's the question of subtle racism being done in the helicopter, which shot some of the footage. One of the officers in the helicopter said Crutcher "looked like a big bad dude." Crutcher's car was stalled in the middle of the road, and this helicopter policeman had already profiled him.
But this isn't Tulsa's first problem with African-Americans. My wife grew up in the Tulsa metro and was not taught the story of... well, it depends on how you want to describe it. Wikipedia, for one, simultaneously calls it the Tulsa Race Riots and the Tulsa Race Massacre. The latter is probably more accurate. On Memorial Day Weekend in 1921, a black man was (almost assuredly) falsely accused of rape. A white-owned paper (probably) drummed up plans to lynch him, and a group of black people armed themselves and went off to prevent the lynching. A short gun battle ensued after white people armed themselves against the black people. Then the massacre began. Thousands of whites stormed the "Black Wall Street/Little Africa" in a one-sided rout. They burned nearly 1,300 homes and 200 businesses. They destroyed a hospital and a junior high school. Airplanes dropped flaming balls of turpentine and (possibly) dynamite. Fire stations didn't sound and sat there quietly. Roughly 6,000 black people were arrested (!) and illegally held at what were effectively internment centers. Officially, 35 black people were killed, though it's widely assumed that number is low, with most estimating 50-300 black people were killed. The Tulsa Race Riots stole the modern equivalent of $30 million in black-created wealth. The Tulsa Chamber of Commerce even tried to conspire to prevent the black community from rebuilding. And no one teaches that history. It has been swept under the rug.
In April of last year, a 73-year-old white deputy reserve officer (not a cop, but a deputized civilian) for Tulsa County mistook his Taser for a gun and shot and killed Eric Harris. The deputy reserve was convicted of manslaughter and sentenced to four years in prison.
Tulsa is still quite segregated. I could describe it with numbers, anecdotes or more, but let's save the ink: It's still very segregated. White people in Tulsa will say that they'd never be racist, and they don't see people any differently, but they'd also say they'd never go to North Tulsa. Tulsa will probably treat the Terence Crutcher incident like the Tulsa Race Massacre, the Eric Harris incident, and the ongoing housing disparity: Sweep it under the rug and pretend it doesn't exist. Tulsa's rug is getting awfully lumpy.
Election Update
OK, the above stuff was plenty, so I'll cut to the chase.
President
Nevada leans Trump right now, but it's pretty close. It's a pink state. Colorado had a few outlier polls showing a Trump lead, but others show a 9-10 point Clinton lead. It might be one to watch, but it stays blue for now. I'm going ahead and turning Ohio red for now. Clinton's had a few good polls there, but for the most part, polls show a Trump lead. Same with Iowa. Same with Maine's second district electoral vote. North Carolina is too close to call. This week's polls have been good for Clinton in Florida, but it's still a toss-up. Nevada, Ohio, Maine's second district and Iowa go red. Toss-up states: Florida, North Carolina and Nebraska's second district. States to watch: Ohio, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, and Nevada. Electoral College: 272 Clinton, 222 Trump, 270 to win.
Senate
Four new polls in North Carolina show a tie, two leads for the Democrat and one lead for the Republican. It moves back to "No Clue." I think Heck has the advantage in Nevada, though it's still within striking distance for the Democrat. While I wasn't watching, my own state became a battleground. A new poll of Missouri showed Jason Kander with a 2-point lead over incumbent GOP Sen. Roy Blunt. I'll move it to No Clue for now, but I still think Blunt has an edge. North Carolina and Missouri move to No Clue. Nevada moves red. No Clue: North Carolina, Missouri and Pennsylvania. Outlook +2 Democrats, not enough for a majority.
Summary Judgments
Wow. George H.W. Bush will vote for Hillary Clinton this year. Why is Trump as close as he is? How are people convinced by Donald Trump? I don't get it. • • • Let's call someone a mastermind after their team has won a title, please. • • • I thought this segment by Trevor Noah on the Daily Show was really good. He explains why we might have unwilling bias and makes a good point about being exposed to people of different backgrounds. • • • We all know female black widow spiders eat the male after mating. However, the male black widows are developing a possible counter to that measure. Nature is fascinating. • • • Speaking of fascinating nature, there was recent confirmation of the longest lightning bolt ever recorded. It spanned 200 miles from near Tulsa to near the Texas Panhandle! • • • I finally signed up for my race. It's the National World War I Museum and Memorial 8K Double. you have 1:15 to finish a 5K. After the end of that time, you run another 3K. I'm intrigued and want to have some fun. It'll also serve as an end to this year's running season for me and finish Homecoming Week. • • • This weekend marks the first of two trips to Oklahoma in the next month for us. That means several hours in the car with 2-year-olds. And when we get back, we start potty training. Did all my hair just turn gray at once in fear?
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