While the Presidential election is taking a lot of attention, we're missing a lot of action in the Senate. Specifically, one branch of Congress could flip parties. I've documented how if it flips, the GOP will likely take it back in 2018. But for now, the question is whether the Democrats can flip it blue. Right now, I'd say the odds are in their favor. They need to pick up a net of four seats (provided they win the presidential election) to take the majority in the Senate. Let's take a look at where things stand.
Sure Things
The incumbency advantage is large. So these races are not close at all: CA, AK, AR, AZ (John McCain), KS (Jerry Moran), OK (James Lankford), OR, KY (Rand Paul), WA, ID, ND, SD, IA, OH, NY, MD, CT, UT, VT, HI, AL, GA, SC, CO. All (with the possible exception of Rob Portman in Ohio) are the same party as the one that state will likely vote for president. That is, red state Republicans and blue state Democrats.
Almost Sure Things
Democrat Tammy Duckworth is almost assuredly going to win the Illinois Senate seat (+1 Democrat) over incumbent Mark Kirk. It's currently a red seat in a blue state, so it was always targeted.
There has only been one poll in Louisiana, and their elections are a bit weird (everybody in one giant primary on election day, then a runoff a few weeks/months later), but expect a Republican to win.
Wisconsin is likely to go blue. It's a rematch of six years ago, when Democrat Russ Feingold lost his seat to Ron Johnson. But Johnson is a GOP senator in a likely blue state, and he's also not made many friends. Almost every poll has had a Feingold lead, except one. +2 Democrat
GOP Sen. Marco Rubio will likely win his seat back in Florida. He's had a lead throughout the summer and fall. Some polls are showing it starting to close, but again: Rubio's had the lead in every poll. I don't see it flipping.
Pretty Likely
In a somewhat similar situation, Democrat Evan Bayh is running for his old seat in Indiana. He stepped down six years ago, then has returned this year in a state in which the Bayh family name carries a lot of weight (His dad was a politician, too). Every poll since he entered the race has showed Bayh leading, despite being a Democrat in a red state. It's gotten closer, but still: all polls show Bayh with a lead. +3 Democrat
What's Left
There are five states that will probably decide the Senate. The Democrats need to win any two of them: PA, NV, NC, NH, and MO. Nevada is the most important seat here. It's Harry Reid's seat (he's retiring), and it's the only currently Democratic seat among the five. All of these states are razor thin according to polling, so keep in mind that these are my educated guesses, and it could just as easily go the other way:
Of these, the one I feel most confident in right now is in North Carolina. North Carolina's polls have vacillated between a 2-point lead for either candidate. However, a majority of polls have GOP incumbent Sen. Richard Burr with the edge. He's had the lead or a tie in all but three polls this month. North Carolina's probably going blue, so it's still within striking distance for Democrat Deborah Ross. But for now, I have it staying red.
GOP Sen. Roy Blunt is not popular here in Missouri. Anecdotally, I don't think I've seen a Blunt sign this election, which is weird for an Republican incumbent in a red state. I've seen several for Jason Kander, though. On the other hand, many Democrats feel Kander is not all that liberal, but he's better than Blunt. Kander had what was called the best commercial of this election cycle of any race nationwide (This might be the funniest.). The few polls that exist show a close race, and Missouri's a weird state (It'll vote Trump for president, but it might vote in a Democrat as governor). Although it's close, I feel I need more than a poll or two to believe it's really flipping. I feel that Blunt wins, but it's pretty hard to get a read on it, and I live here. There isn't much polling data, but it's close for sure.
On the other hand, Pennsylvania has a lot of polling data. Heck, there have been roughly 15 polls of the Keystone State just since the first presidential debate. Nine showed a lead for Democrat challenger Katie McGinty. Four showed a tie. Four showed a lead for GOP Sen. Pat Toomey. I'm going to play the averages here and say that McGinty's lead in the polls and the fact Pennsylvania is a blue state leads her to victory. Also, Toomey struggled at a recent debate to say if he supported or denounced Trump, so that indecision may factor in. +4 Democrat
Nevada leaned to a GOP pickup for Joe Heck for the longest time. Then polls in the last two weeks show a different race. Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid's handpicked successor, Catherine Cortez Masto, has a lead in six of the last 10 polls. That said, one of the polls for Heck had him up by 8, so this isn't the easiest race to call. But I feel like something has changed here in recent weeks, and it is more likely to stay Democrat. It's just a hunch for now, but it's a change from two weeks ago.
The hardest is possibly in New Hampshire, where incumbent GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte has the slimmest of leads in the polls, but she's running against Democrat Gov. Maggie Hassan and it's a blue state. Ayotte (and those like Heck and Toomey above) is in a sticky position: Trying to figure out what to say about Trump without losing the election. She said in a NH debate that he was "absolutely" a role model for kids, then immediately walked it back. Now the GOP is actively running ads in N.H. that Clinton needs a check in Congress (implying they expect she'll win the presidency), the first to take that tack on a national level. I think Hassan ends up taking it because the state goes blue for the presidential election, but Ayotte is fighting very hard. +5 Democrats
In truth, I think I'm probably going to be wrong by one either way. But it's so close that it'll depend on turnout for either party. Maybe Nevada will flip red and both Ayotte and Toomey will hold on, in which case the GOP could keep the Senate. Maybe Kander surprises Blunt or Ross pulls off the win in North Carolina, in which case the Democrats could win a little breathing room for 2018. It's hard to tell. Thankfully, we will find out here in less than two weeks. I'm ready to talk about silly things again, like ranking the Scooby Doo television shows (coming sometime after the election).
Evan McMullin
I wanted to take a look at this man, who is more likely than either Gary Johnson or Jill Stein to win actual electoral college votes this election. He's got a decent chance of winning Utah, in a three-way race with Clinton and Trump there. So who is he and what does he believe?
He's an ex-CIA operations officer and used to work for the U.S. to resettle refugees. He was an investment banker and was formerly chief policy director for the House Republican Conference. He's also Mormon, which explains the love he gets in Utah and several states in the West with large Mormon populations.
From my readings of his policy views and website, although he's running as an independent, he's probably best described as a Republican from the 1990s/early 2000s. He supports free trade (something neither Trump nor Clinton does), wants Scalia-type Originalists on the Supreme Court, is pro-life, and is pro-Israel. He is in favor of keeping Guantanamo open, but dislikes the Iran nuclear agreement. However, he's also got some more... progressive views than Donald Trump. For instance, he's against same-sex marriage but "respects" the Supreme Court's Obergefell (gay marriage) decision and won't seek to overturn it. He's open about needs to raise the retirement age for Social Security and has suggested means-testing the program (!). He believes in climate change and wants to work to lower our carbon emissions. He supports certain provisions of Obamacare while also seeking to improve/do better. Unlike Trump, he opposes the use of torture. His stances on the issues are better thought out than the other third-party candidates and also largely more conservative.
All told, he seems like a good option for Republicans (or, heck, independents) who feel they could never support Clinton, but can't support Trump. He seems to be the sort of "reasonable Republican" that wouldn't have been on the debate stage this time last year during the primary debates. He would never have emerged from the Republican primary, because he's too moderate.
Further, from a practical viewpoint, he's not going to be president. There's a plausible scenario out there, in which Trump and Clinton keep each other from winning 270 votes, and McMullin wins Utah. That would send the election to the House, who might want to go with a moderate option of McMullin than Trump or Clinton. But although it's plausible, it's not likely. Even if it goes to the House, I think it's more likely to pick Trump than McMullin, although he would at least be in the conversation. McMullin isn't on the ballot in most states, including the three states in which I've lived long-term (Kansas, Missouri and Oklahoma). He's not on the ballot in Florida or North Carolina, either — important states to the election. You can write him in for some of those states (Kansas and Missouri, notably) but not in all of them (Oklahoma).
There are just too many ifs for me to get too excited. 1) If you live in a state in which he's on the ballot or you can write in candidates for President and 2) If you are unconvinced to vote for Clinton or Trump and 3) If you think he can legitimately win the presidency by a) winning one state and b) hoping the other two don't win 270 votes and c) relying on the House to choose a moderate, then he's a fine choice. OPINION ALERT: From my view, his policies are a lot more attractive and thought out than the current Republican nominee.
Election Update
Presidential
The short version is this: Watch New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Colorado, Michigan, Virginia and Pennsylvania. These six are polling as solid Clinton states — not one poll shows a Trump lead in the last month — but Trump needs to win one of them to win the presidency. Everything else I'll mention is a bonus for Clinton, and would help provide either some breathing space or an election mandate. She can lose every state I'm mentioning below and still win, provided she doesn't lose any of the ones above. • • • • One poll of both Florida and North Carolina show a Trump lead. All others show a Clinton lead, so they stay blue. Iowa's polls are back-and-forth, but I feel like it leans red right now. Nevada's really close, too. I think it's the opposite of Iowa, and leans blue slightly. Ohio's most recent polls show a slight Trump lead, so I'm going to keep it red. Arizona is probably the closest in the polls, and although some had a slight Trump lead, others had a moderate Clinton lead. I'm going to play the average there and keep it blue. No changes. States to watch: Utah, Ohio, Arizona, Iowa, Florida, North Carolina. 333 Clinton, 205 Trump, 270 to win.
Summary Judgments
I thought this story about ESPN NFL Insider Chris Mortensen was very well done. Reporters aren't usually the stuff of in-depth features. Mortensen's life is fascinating, and his recent battle with Stage IV cancer is all the more heartbreaking. • • • Someone researched Trump's statements about religion. While we can't know what's in someone's heart, we can know what comes out of their lips and off their tongue. • • • I haven't been running lately, but I'm hoping to after Daylight Savings Time hits. That's because it's really dark right now when I have the chance to run: 6:30-7:15 a.m. I'd like to run a 5K on Thanksgiving morning, but if I can't practice, that won't happen. • • • I don't have any particularly good Roland and Evie stories this week. So instead, I'll talk about our yard. A few months ago, I narrowly missed a large branch falling on my car. Instead, it fell over the street and knocked the power line to a street light. The utility company came out, fixed the power line and sawed up/moved the tree out into our yard — it's our problem now. Well, I borrowed a chainsaw from a neighbor, but didn't get done before the chain came off. Another neighbor came by and did a little more, but their chainsaw broke. So I've had a couple large logs/branch pieces sitting in our yard for a while -- I don't know where to take them/what to do with them. Now the leaves are falling from the tree and I have tons of branches in my backyard, lots of wood and I need to mow one last time. Anybody need any wood and/or leaves?
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