Hillary won the debate (she wasn't perfect, though), but Trump did enough that people who are inclined to like him and dislike Hillary will probably find some solace in his performance. I'm not sure that stems the tide from his horrible weekend, though.
Numbers
The town hall format is at least supposed to be more conversational and respectful. There were fewer interruptions. However, I still counted Trump at 17 interruptions. Clinton had three, including two in one short exchange (whether she was involved in the Syrian "red line"). So he's interrupting her somewhere between a 5:1 and a 6:1 margin. Let's not pretend this is both sides talking over each other — the interruptions are pretty one-sided.
Most sources had Trump at about a minute more in speaking time than Clinton, roughly 40 minutes to 39.
Trump used "disaster" 16 times, in reference to Obamacare, single-payer health care (not an actual Clinton policy), Iraq, alleged Clinton tax hikes, Clinton's experience as a senator, Libya, Clinton's entire foreign policy career, Aleppo, NAFTA, inner-city education, the economy in upstate New York, and "jobs." There are a lot of disasters.
A friend of mine alerted me to another way to track attacks: by name. Trump never said "Hillary," but used the full name "Hillary Clinton" 12 times. Clinton used "Donald" or "Donald Trump" 35 times over the course of the debate. But that's not the whole story, because Trump pointedly didn't say Clinton's name, but used "she" most of the time. He used "she" in reference to Clinton 141 times. Clinton used "he" in reference to Trump 54 times. Add all those up, and Trump attacked Clinton by name or pronoun 153 times. Clinton, on the other hand, attacked Trump 89 times. So roughly 5 attacks by Trump for every 3 of Clinton's -- they are not equal attackers.
Reactions
This category is easy, because it happened during the debate. Complaining about the moderators is not a good look, and signals that you're trying to blame someone else for losing. By my count, it happened at least five times, probably six:
• "So she's allowed to do that, but I'm not allowed to respond?" immediately after he was given an opportunity to respond.
• "It's nice... one on three."
• "Why don't you interrupt her? You interrupt me all the time..."
• "Excuse me. She just went about 25 seconds over her time there." Moderator Martha Raddatz: "She did not."
• "I think we should be allowed to maybe..." -- I'm pretty sure he was going to say something about being allowed to respond, but he got cut off by Raddatz.
• "You know what's funny? She went over a minute over, and you don't stop her. When I go one second over, it's like a big deal."
Both candidates went over their time limits, but I didn't notice inconsistencies from Cooper/Raddatz in the transcript — they told both candidates when they were going over. I would say that they questioned Trump more often, but that's because he wasn't answering the question or would take a surprising position (like disagreeing with Pence), and they wanted clarification or an on-the-record policy statement.
At the first debate, I didn't notice the sniffles thing that others have mentioned. I did this time, though. His problem is that he's holding the microphone too close to his mouth/nose, and so every inhale gets magnified. This problem could be (should have been) addressed by a little practice.
Facts
Again, here are some links.
Politifact rated 21 Trump statements, and found 7 true/mostly true and 12 false/mostly false. Clinton had 6 rated statements (she made fewer accusations) and 5 were true/mostly true and 1 mostly false. Three other statements by the candidates did not have a rating.
Body Language
I hate talking about body language and format, because it's so subjective. But the town hall format showed a stark difference.
Town halls are meant to have the candidates engage with the audience. Clinton engaged with the questioners. "Are you a teacher?" she asked the first questioner. Later, she says "Mr. Carter..." when answering a question. "It sounds like you're in the business or you're aware of people in the business..." she said to Ken Bone. She often walked over and looked the questioner in the eye as she began her response and usually stuck to the issue, or at least a related sidebar. Both candidates used "That's a great question." Trump rarely addressed the questioner at all.
One final body language issue I want to mention is about Donald Trump, because I don't think he sat down all night. Sitting indicates comfort. Clinton often sat down, showing she was more at ease. While I don't think the claims of "lurking" were all that out of place for the format (Clinton may have intentionally set him up for a couple of those moments), he did pace and stand behind his chair and put the microphone to his lips often — without saying anything, but getting ready to interject. Some called it alpha-male, but it was at the least aggressive. Clinton's not without her faults: When tough issues/accusations came up against Clinton, she tended to smile away her discomfort. That's not as obvious as pacing the room and the on-edge body language of Trump, but it's also not a good look.
Breakdown
My complaints about Clinton remain the same: She falls back on talking points too much. She doesn't react naturally to in-the-moment interaction, so when opportunities arise for a sharp retort, she can't/doesn't seize it. She needs to stop throwing fact checking to her website -- it's lame and probably won't be done. I think many of the accusations Trump threw at her deserved a little more response than simply saying it's all untrue. Even 15 seconds of defense would have been a good use of her time. I get the strategy — take the high road. But not addressing the accusations made her seem dismissive. She was like a football team that won by 10, but had three turnovers. She was good enough, but man, she could have been dominant!
But this debate was, like the election, about Donald Trump. I thought it was the opposite of the first debate. Trump's best part of the first debate was his first 25 minutes, and then he sort of fell apart. This time, he had a terrible first third of the debate, then only kind of composed himself. He was on the attack all night, but often forced attacks in. He almost never presented any of his own policies, rather attacking Obama/Clinton for failure. For instance, the first question asked if they're modeling good behavior for kids. Clinton's answer is positive, talking about goals and being united. Trump speaks for a paragraph about the country being great, then talks negatively about Obamacare, the Iran deal and the trade deficit, as well as bringing back law and order. He didn't address the question at all.
Anderson Cooper brings up the tapes that leaked over the weekend. Trump first denies that he said it, then calls it locker room talk, then apologizes, then reiterates that it's locker room talk. He then spends three paragraphs talking about ISIS, declaring we should move on to other things. There was no transition whatsoever in between: "...locker room talk. You know, when we have a world where you have ISIS chopping off heads...". When Cooper presses him on whether he did the things on the tape, Trump gives a denial then moves to an unrelated issue: "And I will tell you: No, I have not. And I will tell you that I'm going to make our country safe." Clinton then gives a good, detailed answer about this as the latest in a pattern and that it's not what America stands for. Trump wants to respond, and uses his time not to defend himself, but to attack Clinton for not doing enough for upstate New York, blacks, latinos and inner cities. It's a confusing response.
But soon, Raddatz turns the attention back to the tapes. The question: "Trump has said the campaign changed him. When did that change occur?" This is rock bottom for Trump. Trump responds that it was locker room talk, and Bill Clinton's done much worse. However, 1) Bill's not running for president. 2) Let's not go throwing stones, Mr. Glass House. 3) At the last debate, Trump praised himself for not bringing it up and said it was "inappropriate" and "rude." The only thing that changed is that he's now desperate. 4) He blames Hillary for bringing it up — but it was the Washington Post that revealed the story and it was brought up by the questioner, not Hillary. Clinton hadn't yet mentioned it.
After she says that he never apologizes for anything, he throws everything he can in response. Almost all of these are entirely unsubstantiated. He says that Sidney Blumenthal started the birther movement (false). He says that Michelle Obama made videos against her (?). He describes Clinton as the devil. He brings up the email scandal. He says he'll make a special prosecutor look into her situation, as if the FBI hadn't already investigated it. Soon thereafter, he says she'd be in jail. This latter line gets a lot of attention, and those who don't like Clinton will probably cheer it on. However, the FBI has said that no reasonable prosecutor would take the case, meaning Trump's calling for his political rival to be jailed. It's a despicable line, and he's continued making it.
Moments later, the issue swings to the emails, and both sides talk about it. Then, Trump strangely asks why Anderson Cooper isn't bringing up the emails. What were you just talking about, then? Soon there's a question from a Muslim woman about how to deal with Islamophobia. In a town hall format, where you're trying to answer questions, Trump really messes this one up. "You're right about Islamophobia, and that's a shame," he said, then turns to describe profiling (a cause of Islamophobia), makes up falsehoods about San Bernardino (more fuel to the Islamophobia fire) and insinuates that Muslims aren't informing on other Muslims (weird). Clinton's response invokes Capt. Khan and Trump's fight with his family, Muhammad Ali and other historic Muslim Americans while saying Muslim Americans are our strongest ally in addressing homegrown terrorism. Trump gets the next question and brings it back to Khan, saying that if he'd been President, Khan would still be alive. SIGH.
He has a terrible run of questions, denying a relationship with Putin when he spoke at least four times between 2013 and 2015 about his relationship with Putin. He later admitted to not paying federal income taxes, then blamed it on Clinton for letting him get away with it. He's trying to shift the blame there — it's like if a guy caught shoplifting says, "It's the store's fault for not stopping me." Trump also accuses Clinton's supporters of doing the same thing (Warren Buffett released his taxes Monday to disprove this point). He then tries to shift the topic to the Middle East. After both get the Syria question, Trump spends two minutes blaming Obama for the mess before Raddatz steers him back. He then throws Mike Pence under the bus, saying they haven't spoken and he disagrees (!).
After some expected answers about the "basket of deplorables" line, Cooper asks Trump about if he has the discipline to be a good leader since he tweeted at 3 a.m. to check out a sex tape (that doesn't exist) of Alicia Machado. Let's break down this response: "No, there wasn't check out a sex tape. [His tweet said "check out sex tape and past."] It was just take a look at the person she built up to be this wonderful Girl Scout who was no Girl Scout. [Clinton only said that you called her Miss Piggy and Miss Housekeeping, and that Machado would vote. She didn't say she was perfect. Trump is calling attention to Machado's faults as if that gives him license to be offensive.]" Cooper tries to correct him. Trump then talks about Benghazi (?) and a debunked accusation that Clinton was asleep at 3 a.m. the night of the Benghazi attack before saying he's not unproud of the tweets. This man is running for President.
The night ended with three audience questions that were answered by both with nothing truly of note said by either. Trump spent most of his time attacking Obama/Clinton or making easily disproven statements. He hit a lot of right-wing talking points in his attacks, which may make those who hate Clinton jump back on, but he did not talk policy and did not do anything to win over moderates/women/people of color that he will need to win the election. Combined with the Trump tapes (which I may remark on another day), this was a bad weekend for him.
Other Thoughts
• Clinton's answer on the email issue is a glass half full/half empty. She has apologized countless times on a grand stage for it, including at both debates. She's right that no classified information got out of the realm of the government (all who received/sent classified emails had clearance) and the FBI found no intent to evade/hide emails. But she's wrong that the server/email was OK/permitted. Trump rightfully hits her on it and correctly points out when she tries to move on to other questions.
• For the record, here's what the FBI said about the email deletions: The State Department asked for all work-related emails (not a subpoena). Hillary's team goes through the server, sends 30,000 emails, and tells the server company anything older than 60 days should be deleted. Four months later, the eighth Benghazi committee issues a subpoena after the New York Times reveals her private server. Twenty days later, an employee for the server company has an "oh s***" moment and remembers he forgot to delete the Clinton archive and deletes the old emails. The FBI said there was no intent to delete emails to avoid subpoena and that the employee made that decision without any contact from supervisors or the Clinton staff. The FBI found no evidence there was an attempt to conceal, which is kind of the implication.
• Trump said it's not been debunked that he supported the war in Iraq before it began. He's wrong.
• Trump continues to botch one of his endorsements. He was not endorsed by ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement). He was endorsed by the union of employees that work for ICE.
• Clinton invoked the Spielberg movie "Lincoln" to defend having a public and private view. I saw the movie, so I kind of see where she was coming from, but it was a weak answer. She then tried to turn it onto Trump's tax returns, but Trump capitalized on the opening she gave him by hitting her for not being honest.
• Neither had a great answer on specific tax changes to make sure the wealthy pay their share. Trump would get rid of carried interest and drop the corporate tax rate from 35 to 15 percent (not sure this helps on getting the wealthy to pay their share). Clinton would also get rid of carried interest, prevent tax hikes on those making less than $250,000 and have a surcharge on those making over $5 million. If you want a great breakdown of the tax plans, watch this 10-minute video.
• Clinton's answer on her 30 years of service is a good one. There's a lot of working across the aisle there, and Trump's only response is that she should have done more.
• Trump just throws accusations out there, and many get no attention. Take one where he says she's maybe consulted with the Obama administration in its recent dealings with Russia. I have no idea where he gets that. By saying "possibly," it gives him wiggle room to get out of it.
• Raddatz is a highly respected journalist who has been in many war zones. She's been in Iraq more than a dozen times and has spoken to the generals on the scene. When Trump says that the military is stupid for saying they'll attack Mosul, she tries to defend their logic. I think she should have pressed him, without getting into it herself. Trump does say he's "pretty good at it," with it meaning... military? I'm not certain, but the insinuation is that he's better at this than the current generals.
• Both give party-line answers on the Supreme Court issue. I'd rather both had said they'd appoint judges who are strong in the law rather than say what stances they should/should not take.
Election Update
I'm looking at two things: Polls taken after the first debate on Sept. 27 and polls taken after this weekend. Those after this weekend are trickling in. Almost all of these polls are in the first category.
Presidential
I'll say which of these state polls include data from after this weekend (Trump tapes/second debate), but assume they're all from before this weekend unless I mention it. Iowa's polls are mixed, with one good one showing a small Trump lead and two not-as-reputable polls with decent Clinton leads. However, those last two included some data from after last weekend. I'm moving it to Toss-Up. There have been several polls of Arizona since the first debate, and the two reputable ones show a tie or a small Clinton lead. I'm moving Arizona to Toss-Up. I don't think Colorado is all that close, but one reputable poll had that state a tie while others have a 10-point Clinton lead. I'm going to keep an eye on Colorado, but it stays blue for now. Last week, I moved Florida, North Carolina and Nevada blue. The few new polls since last week still show a small, consistent Clinton lead. Nevada's three polls (all after this weekend) were between tie and +6 for Clinton. Those three stay blue. There have been six polls of Ohio since the first debate. Clinton's led in five. But Trump led by 5 points in the other one, so I was going to keep it Toss-Up. Then a post-this weekend poll had Clinton up 9. It moves blue. I've also seen a poll or two of Nebraska's second district, and it's pretty close. I should also mention that Mormons in Utah are mostly flocking to independent Evan McMullin instead of Trump. A few polls show Clinton and Trump within a few points because McMullin and Gary Johnson are stealing votes. I still think Utah goes Trump, but I'll watch for a few more polls. Arizona, Nebraska's 2nd District and Iowa move to Toss-Up. Ohio moves blue. Toss-Ups: Arizona, Iowa, Nebraska's 2nd district and Maine's 2nd district. States to Watch: Florida, Ohio, Arizona, Iowa, Utah, North Carolina, Colorado. Electoral College: 340 Clinton, 179 Trump, 270 to win. As of next week, I'm eliminating the Toss-Up category.
Senate
Nevada still shows a lead for GOP Joe Heck, but two polls after this weekend have either a tie or a small lead for Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto. I'll make it No Clue for this week. Polls from New Hampshire are split, but I'll watch it: GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte said Trump was "absolutely" a role model, and then apologized, and then this weekend happened. North Carolina polls post-debate show everything between a 2-point Democrat lead to a 5-point GOP lead. Pennsylvania's the same way: polls are everywhere between +6 Democrat and +8 Republican. Most have a Democrat lead, but I'll leave it No Clue for now. I'm going to revisit the Senate campaign in a week or two with more analysis. Pennsylvania and Nevada move to No Clue. No Clue: New Hampshire, Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Missouri. +2 Democrat, not enough for a majority. This is probably the closest race of the election, and I'll eliminate the No Clue as of next week.
Summary Judgments
This is the most shocking thing about this election cycle. • • • No one, from Mike Pence to Chris Christie to Paul Ryan to Reince Preibus to Ted Cruz, will defend the Trump tapes. But they'll still vote for him. What in the world would he have to do to lose their vote? • • • Monday morning, Trump has gone to war with his own party. Sigh. • • • I ran the 5K + 3K in a combined time of 56:23. I'm proud of my time, it's roughly an 11-minute/mile pace. That was 10th in my age bracket! I'm acting like that's good! Note: There were only 16 men age 30-39. • • • We went to the pumpkin patch this weekend, and Roland hasn't stopped talking about it. But he can't quite say what he wants. "Ammals!" "Punky Catch!" "Domuss!" Translation: Animals, Pumpkin Patch, Donuts. • • • This may be TMI, but we have an Evie story that I need to write down somewhere. They've been eating a ton of taco meat lately, and last night I went to change Evie's diaper. As I open it up, she said, "Tacos in there!" Yup. Yes there are. Yes. Yuck.
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