Calling it a Wrap

I'm going to take a break from talking about politics for about a month after this. I think I need it for my soul. But I feel it's my obligation to explain what happened, why those on the left feel so hurt and fearful because of this election, and what you can expect in the next four years.

What Happened
Let's go back to the idea of the "firewall" states for Hillary Clinton. They added up to 273 electoral college votes. Her firewall included Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Those were considered safe states because they'd voted Democrat almost my entire life — Michigan since 1992 and the other two since 1988. And when those were close and going more and more red around 8:30 p.m., it was the end. With North Carolina and Florida pretty much sealed off to her by then, she became reliant on the firewall, and the firewall couldn't hold.

So were the polls off? 
Yes, but not as much as you think. Nate Silver, the famed analyst/number cruncher, is one of my favorite reads. He gave Trump about a 1 in 3 chance of winning (29 percent in his final data set). While that sounds bad, consider that most other political number pundits (numbits?) had Trump at only a 5-10 percent chance. So he was more right than the others. Anyway, he noted that the aggregation of the polls showed a 3-4 percent Clinton lead in the popular vote. She'll end up winning the popular vote by 1-2 percent. That's a fairly typical polling error either way. Marist College, one of the better pollsters out there, showed a 1 percent lead for Clinton in their final poll — they were right! On the other hand, the LA Times/USC poll seemed to show positive results for Trump throughout. They were the outlier, and many dismissed them. The LA Times seemed to brag yesterday about how justified they'd been all along. But they were even more wrong. Their final analysis was that Trump had a 3 point lead nationally. If Clinton won the popular vote by 1-2 percent, that means the LA Times poll was 4-5 percent off! Although it showed a greater Trump lead, it also was farther off than more traditional pollsters.

But prognosticators were wrong, so what gives?
Nate Silver's model says that the states are not independent of each other. For example, if North Dakota votes one way, South Dakota is probably going to follow to some extent. That was the case in the Upper Midwest. While we can't say which was the first domino, if Michigan flips, that meant Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were more likely to flip. Maybe it was Ohio that flipped first. And in swing states like North Carolina and Florida, both of which Trump won narrowly, polls showed Clinton with a lead.

There's some evidence that Trump voters did not like to tell their votes to other people. Trump did better in automated call polls than in live call polls. So there's some evidence that they were shy about broadcasting their vote. The LA Times/USC pollers found that was particularly true for women voters. And when we look at the best data available from the election, we also see stark demographic splits:

Clinton won women by 12 points. Trump won men by 12 points. Clinton won those under 45. Trump won those over 45. Trump won both white men (by 32) and white women (by 10). Clinton won every minority group by at least 29 points. Clinton won college graduates. Trump won those who didn't graduate college (though he won white college graduates, but not white college graduate women). Trump won those who make over $50,000. Clinton won those who make under $50,000. Even on the issue 52 percent of Americans found most important — the economy — Clinton won. But when asked their reason for voting, the biggest reason — change — went heavily to Trump. These are not small divides. These are big differences. It tells me that we are as divided as ever.

The most succinct answer I saw about what changed was from a source that I now can't find. But what they tweeted was that white non-college educated people, who represent somewhere between 30 and 40 percent of the electorate, decided they were a minority and were going to vote like one. That would explain the shift in the Upper Midwest, where economic recovery has been slower than the rest of the country.

One final reminder for those celebrating this win on the right: A swing of 1 voter in 100 would have given Clinton a win not only in North Carolina, but also in the Upper Midwest. While she was horribly unpopular now, the Democrats won't be running a Clinton next election cycle. Also, more people voted for Hillary Clinton than for Donald Trump. That cannot be forgotten or ignored — this was not a mandate from the people.

What Happens Now
Before I go on, I should mention the Senate stayed Republican, 52-48. What happened? Quite simply, red states voted for GOP senators and blue states voted for Democrat senators. The states in which Democrats either won seats or held on (Nevada, New Hampshire, Illinois) all went to Clinton. The states in which Trump won meant that the close Senate races there went GOP, too (Pennsylvania, Indiana, Wisconsin, North Carolina).

So this means the country will have a Republican President, a Republican House, a Republican Senate, and you can bet your bottom dollar that it'll have a Republican Supreme Court in about four months. There is talk that Rudy Giuliani could be the Attorney General. Chris Christie, whose top aides were just convicted in Bridgegate, could have a Cabinet post. Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback, the most unpopular governor in the country, is being considered for Agriculture Secretary. Newt Gingrich could be Secretary of State. If you're noticing a theme, there is one: formerly disgraced, staunchly conservative white men. And don't expect this to change in 2018: the Senate map is terrible for Democrats, as I predicted months ago. So let me put this in italics: The GOP can do whatever they want for the next four years. Months ago, we were talking about the House or Senate being a check on Clinton. Now, there is no check on President Trump.

Why Those on the Left Are Taking This Personally
If the right lost, it was just a political loss for them — it didn't affect their personal identity if Obamacare remained or the country continued Obama-era policies. It just meant things weren't going the way they liked.

But for the left, this loss is not just political, their personal identities are possibly under attack based on Trump's stated positions:
• LGBT people are concerned that with a conservative Supreme Court and Republicans completely in power, they will no longer be protected by the law. They're worried that their rights to marry the person they want are in jeopardy. They're frightened that their rights could go backwards, even. They're almost certain that in states like Kansas or Oklahoma, there will be no way to prevent them from being fired or kicked out of their home simply for being gay (currently legal, by the way).
• Black people are worried that Trump will carry through on his campaign promises of brutal and unconstitutional police tactics. They're scared of stop-and-frisk — ruled unconstitutional because it targeted minorities, but touted by Trump anyway. They're worried that our president-elect has continued to declare minority men like the Central Park Five guilty and deserving of jail time, even though DNA evidence has cleared them and a sixth man admitted to the crime. They're worried because he believes inner cities are third world countries. They're worried that the candidate endorsed by the KKK and championed by white supremacists has now gained unchecked power.
• Latinos are scared to death. They're worried that undocumented immigrants, perhaps their father or brother or even them, could be rounded up and shipped to Mexico. They're afraid of a wall that seems to demonize Mexican immigrants. They are afraid of a man whose campaign began with the idea that Mexican immigrants are rapists and drug dealers, but he assumed (!) that some — not many — were good people. The mass deportation, once ruled unconstitutional when done in California in decades past, could separate families. They feel under attack.
• Journalists are worried. I know I am, and I'm no longer a journalist, really. Trump has attacked those in the media and stoked the fire of his supporters at the media. One supporter at a recent Trump rally wore a shirt that said "Tree. Rope. Journalist. Some Assembly Required." THAT SCARES ME PERSONALLY. He's advocated loosening the libel laws so that he can use his large pocketbooks to attack journalists. He's attacked Megyn Kelly, a right-leaning Fox News host of all people, for daring to question him about his views on women.
• Muslim-Americans are worried for their lives and livelihoods. Hassan Minaj on The Daily Show gave an incredibly heartfelt speech about how his mother, who immigrated to America years ago, is out of the country right now, but is frantically asking if she'll be allowed to come back in February. I have Muslim friends that are worried about harassment and the emboldening of Islamophobes.
• There are a large number of women I know who are depressed. For instance, I have a friend who was raped and tortured (the man was convicted). Trump bragged about sexual assault on those tapes but denied it ever happened, then nearly a dozen women came forth to say it had happened. Yet America has said that doesn't matter — put him in the highest office. She's afraid that this will only embolden horrible actions by men, because if Trump can do it and face no consequences, then anyone can.
• That brings me to my final group of people afraid. Well, not afraid, but perhaps concerned. I know many parents, albeit left-leaning, who have paid attention this election cycle. And what this election has done is say that there are no off-limits anymore. You can be as caustic, as vile, as rude, as mean, as interrupting as you want to whomever you want. And that's no longer a disqualifier for our highest office. This is a threat to those who feel that morality is important in our leaders.
UPDATE: • I forgot one group. I have friends, including two close ones, who are reliant on Obamacare provisions. Before Obamacare kicked in, pre-existing conditions prevented them from getting health insurance. Without health insurance, they could not have gotten the surgeries and treatment they needed to survive. Without the provisions of Obamacare, these two friends would be either dead in one case or not able to work in the other. Obamacare has literally saved their lives. And they are scared to death that the promises made to repeal Obamacare will put their future in jeopardy.

Again, this will be my last post about politics until after Thanksgiving and probably into December. I need a break from it. My soul hurts for those I've listed above, and I'm having a hard time coming to terms with it. Some of those fears may end up being unjustified. Maybe President Trump won't do the things he's said. Maybe he'll say "never mind" on some of his harshest rhetoric (Already, Giuliani and Christie have seemed to wave off the idea of locking up Hillary Clinton as just talk, when that was something they personally stoked and chanted at rallies and the RNC). But maybe, as his followers suggest, "he means what he says."

Either way, I need to get away from politics and find something else to distract me. Plus, this site wasn't just about politics anyway. It turned that way because the election is something I knew, but I want this site to be about tackling specific issues in different ways, researching my conclusions, telling about how journalism works, and doing silly things (Ranking the Scooby Doo series/characters is coming). The posts will be far smaller going forward, so thanks for dealing with the length during the election season.

Summary Judgments

CNN kept doing a "Key State Alert" to update the election on Tuesday. They didn't need a sounder every time they checked a state, and it was really kind of dumb when it's about a state we knew would go one way or another: They did the Key State Alert for Indiana, for example — that's a Trump state and everyone knew it. That's not a Key State, that's just a state.  •  •  •  I still think the Electoral College has a purpose. But it's been pointed out that the only four times that it chose someone other than the popular vote winner, it's chosen a Republican every time. There might be more calls to change the EC if both sides had suffered the same loss.  •  •  •  There's an old adage, I don't know where it came from. Demolition costs 10 times less than Construction, because it's way easier to tear things down than to build something back up. Let's see what the GOP will build when they're done tearing down.  •  •  •  This is the first election since the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 to overturn certain portions of the Voting Rights Act. Their reasoning, per Chief Justice Roberts, was that times had changed and America no longer needed those voting protections. Perhaps this decision had an effect in a few key states, like North Carolina. For instance, its lawmakers eliminated Sunday early voting after seeking out research that proved it was "disproportionately black" and "disproportionately Democratic." Wisconsin had 300,000 possible voters who did not have an ID (those without an ID tend to be minorities, and those at either end of the age spectrum) and therefore could not vote. The margin of victory for Trump in that state was under 30,000. The same is true in Michigan on a larger scale: More voters without a photo ID, but a margin of victory for Trump under 20,000.  •  •  •  I was nervous on the day of the election, and Roland helped make it a little better. First, he decided he should have my I Voted sticker and put it on him instead. Second, when Alyson asked who he voted for, he said "My Daddy." That warmed my heart.  •  •  •  This weekend, we start really potty training Evie. We think she'll take to it easily, but yet I have no idea what to expect.