Last Call

I'm writing this with just a couple dozen hours before this whole election thing will be over (I hope.). I believe tomorrow will go peacefully. I believe the election will be calmly accepted by both parties. I believe that the outcome will cause change, and that both parties perform a serious introspection.

Where do we stand? 
Hillary Clinton probably has the advantage, but it's not a lock. What political observers have long called her "firewall" is mostly holding. "Firewall" states include Wisconsin, Michigan, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia and New Hampshire. If she wins all those, it won't matter if she loses Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Florida, Arizona or Iowa. She could lose all of them, but if she holds onto those in the first sentence, she's still your president.

But you might have noticed the hedge there — mostly. New Hampshire has been tight in the polls, with some leads for Donald Trump mixed in. Michigan and Colorado are now in the lower single digits. Virginia's firmly blue, and I'd be shocked if Pennsylvania flipped, but that's why we vote — shocks sometimes happen.

On the flip side, I think there is evidence that Clinton is doing better in Nevada and will probably win there (Most of that state votes early, and about 2/3 of the expected votes are already in for the state -- party registrations show a Democrat advantage). That could counter a loss in New Hampshire, or a win in North Carolina/Florida could counter a surprise Clinton loss in Michigan/Pennsylvania.

What states are most important? 
I think there are five, in order:

1) Florida — If Clinton wins here, she's probably winning in Nevada and New Hampshire, too, and has a good shot at North Carolina. Which means Trump's pathway to the presidency is almost completely blocked. Polls have a slight Clinton lead, and I think it's leaning blue right now, but it's pretty much considered a coin flip by several reputable sources.
2) Pennsylvania -- If it goes to Trump, he's probably winning more than we expect. A Trump win would signal that polls were missing many of his voters. Trump has only led in one poll here in the last month, and I don't think it's particularly close to being a red state, but it's possible.
3) North Carolina -- This is Florida in miniature for both candidates. Florida has 29 electoral votes, and North Carolina has 15. Plan A for Clinton is to win her firewall states. Plan B would be to swap out Michigan or Wisconsin for North Carolina.
4) Nevada -- Plan A for Clinton is to win her firewall states. New Hampshire's probably the most worrisome for her, but it only has 4 electoral votes. If she trades New Hampshire's 4 for Nevada's 6 electoral votes, that's a trade she's willing to make.
5) New Hampshire -- Of the firewall states, this is the most easy to pick off for Trump. It's a Northeast state, which tends to like Trump more than others. It's a state that tends to pick the national winner, and it's more libertarian than other states around it. Also, it could block off the easy road for Clinton.

How could Hillary Clinton win?
Plan A: Win her firewall. If she wins that, she's President.
Plan B: Win North Carolina or Florida as insurance against a surprise loss (or two, in Florida's case) somewhere else.
Plan C: If you can't win North Carolina or Florida and one of her big firewall states (Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania) has been breached, then win Ohio and either Nevada or New Hampshire. It's just barely enough — but a win's a win.

How could Donald Trump win?
Step one: Win Florida, or he's toast.
Step two: Win Ohio and Iowa. If he's struggling with these, he's losing in a landslide.
Step three: Here's where it gets tricky. He needs to win an Upper Midwest state like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania or Michigan (both would do it, too), then win North Carolina and one other electoral vote (Maine's second district would do nicely). OR he could win Pennsylvania and Nevada while losing Wisconsin, Michigan and North Carolina. OR break through with a win in the firewall state of Colorado and win Nevada (or the firewall state of New Hampshire).

What should we watch for tomorrow?
The first results from New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Florida will tell us how the day will go. If Clinton's struggling in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, she's in for a long day. On the other hand, if she wins those two by 5-7 points, while North Carolina and Florida are close, she's probably going to win.

Also, watch the Senate races. Even the best prognosticators think it's roughly a coin flip to see if the Senate flips or not. It might all come down to the New Hampshire, Indiana or North Carolina Senate races.

Anything weird we should look out for?
I find three plausible, strange possibilities in the Electoral College and one outside the election.

1) If Clinton wins New Hampshire, Nevada and all the votes in Maine, but Trump wins Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa and Wisconsin, it's a 269-269 tie.
2) If Clinton wins all the votes in Maine, but Trump wins New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida, it's a 269-269 tie.
3) If Clinton wins New Hampshire and Nevada, but Trump wins one electoral vote in Maine and wins Colorado, it's a 269-269 tie.
Those scenarios would create fascinating political theater: Each state gets one vote in the incoming House of Representatives for President, and the incoming Senate does the same for Vice President. In this scenario, it's likely/possible that we'd have a Trump as president and Tim Kaine as vice president. Maybe. Who knows. It'd be wild.

The only other thing that could be weird/upsetting/strange is foreign interference in the election: Russia tampers with voting results or the power grid goes down... this type of thing would be a disaster on a national scale. I don't think this is all that likely, but it's a possibility to consider.

FBI stands for Fairly Brief Investigation

There wasn't much to FBI Director James Comey's first letter, which was effectively "We're looking at possible new evidence." But the media reported on it as if it were a scandal. It wasn't then and it turns out it wasn't now. It's reported that the emails were all either duplicates or personal emails. In effect, it's "nothing to see here."

But what it did was probably galvanize some on the right that they have to fight "Crooked Hillary." Perhaps that will have an effect at the polls. But I also think there were a percentage of people in the middle, unsure of what to decide. Maybe Comey's clearance of criminal activity makes them more likely to vote for Clinton. Honestly, I think that it's a wash. I doubt it changed anyone's mind one way or another, but perhaps made people more likely to vote. And more people participating in democracy is not a terrible thing. I'd rather the FBI stayed out of it altogether, however — Comey's original letter came at a critical time for both candidates.

Final predictions

Clinton's firewall holds. She also wins Nevada and Florida, while North Carolina comes down to the wire. I'll be bold and say she loses in North Carolina (My gut is she wins one of North Carolina or Florida, but I don't know which). Trump steals a vote in Maine's second district, but Clinton wins the electoral vote 307-231.

In the Senate, I think Feingold holds on in Wisconsin and Duckworth coasts in Illinois. I think Cortez Masto squeaks by in Nevada, while McGinty pulls off the victory in Pennsylvania. I think the Democrats pull off one more win in New Hampshire, but fall in North Carolina, Missouri and, surprisingly, Indiana. That means a 50-50 tie, with Tim Kaine giving Democrats the majority as vice president.

Summary Judgments

Just go vote. Do it for the fate and trajectory of our country.