Thursday, June 8, 2017

How Hot is Your Water? Comey, Trump, Kushner, Flynn

Congressional testimony is usually a place for grandstanding — but not typically by the person testifying. It's an opportunity for Congress to use their questions to push their narrative. Republicans repeatedly asked questions on Thursday about the meaning of words ("hope"), how Comey should have stood up to Trump more forcefully because Trump is new to politics (?), and if Trump had wanted Comey to drop the investigation, wouldn't Trump have said so more frequently and forcefully (??). Meanwhile, Democrats asked questions that they knew they wouldn't get an answer to on camera: Isn't this obstruction of justice, did Trump collude with Russia, and "why should we [and by extension, America] believe you?"

While there were a few surprises, this was not the popcorn-chewing, must-watch Congressional testimony that many were expecting. It almost never is. There's a reason C-SPAN doesn't win many ratings battles. Most of the bombshell information Comey will tell Congress is being held off-camera with senators. The public isn't allowed and won't find out, for a) ongoing investigation reasons and b) potential classified reasons. So... who's in trouble here, and how much trouble are they in?

James Comey
There are some shots being taken by desperate Republicans, but it's pretty clear they're kind of toothless. The worst accusation is that Comey leaked to the press, which he admitted to doing in testimony on Thursday. There is, however, a reason for that: He had already been fired, his memos weren't classified, and Trump had tweeted and given interviews attacking Comey and the FBI. In short, he was under attack and fought back, so to speak. So far, the only people to say Comey is lying are extremely close to the President: President Trump's own lawyer and Donald Trump Jr. So what hot water is Comey in? None. He's got nothing to lose, and his part in this is essentially over, barring any more hearings. Not all characters in the play make it to the third act, and he has played his part.
Water temperature: Soothing hot spring

Donald Trump
There's an adage about frogs: If you put one in boiling water, it'll jump right out. But if you put one in cold water and slowly heat it up, the frog won't recognize the danger until it's being boiled alive. It's not true, but it's best used as a metaphor. President Trump is in increasingly hot water. This whole Congressional testimony ended up asking the question: Who do you trust more, James Comey or President Trump? Each has now called the other a liar, and one brought detailed notes to the party and welcomed the "tapes" that the other intimated he had. Anyway, President Trump was not originally under FBI investigation, as Comey testified and told Trump. He was not the focus of the investigation. However, the FBI didn't want to be public with that in case it changed and they had to retract it. There was a great moment when one senator asked Comey if he was fired because of the Russian investigation. Comey replied that Trump's already admitted to that on camera. Where Trump is in trouble is the obstruction of justice charge. If your Mom says "I hope you can do [X] in the next hour", then you'd better get X done. While legally speaking, it might be enough to avoid courtroom charges, it certainly meets the threshold of obstruction of justice in an impeachment sense. Trump wasn't originally a focus of the investigation, but the more he meddled with/involved himself in it, the more he implicated himself. Nixon was the same way — he didn't necessarily know about all the dirty things being done in his name, but he certainly tried cleaning up the mess after the fact. That's what did Richard Nixon in, and it could be, one day, stops Donald Trump. But for now, he has a sympathetic Congress, so it's doubtful anything is coming soon.
Water temperature: Heating up, but the frog's still in the pot

Jared Kushner
There are several worrisome issues with Kushner, like the meeting with Kislyak or the head of a major Russian bank. But let's focus on just one aspect for Jared Kushner: the reports that, with Lt. Gen. Flynn, he attempted to set up a secret back channel with Russia after the election but before inauguration. He even supposedly asked to use Russian embassy facilities to communicate. This is a good link about how WAY across the line that was. Short version: Kushner wasn't an official part of the Trump administration at the time. He was a private citizen attempting to make secret contact/diplomacy with a foreign country. Private citizens can't perform diplomacy with foreign powers, per the Logan Act. Back channels can be OK, but they have to be monitored by the FBI. There are two ways to save himself, and both involve throwing someone under the metaphorical bus: 1) President-Elect Trump told me to or 2) Flynn said we should.
Water temperature: Near boiling

Lt. Gen. Flynn
You know all those things I said about Kushner? Flynn's the same, except he can't claim ignorance about proper channels and such. He was already one of the country's top security advisors, and certainly knew better. Further, I think you can read into Trump worry a little bit here. Trump didn't ask Comey to let Kushner go, he asked about Flynn, who had already left his administration. He's long been a target of the investigation, there's a lot of reported "smoke" around him, and there are already subpoenas out for his business records. It's not looking great.
Water temperature: Boiling!

Trump's Tweets
I've said before that the media reads too much into Trump's tweets. About a dozen of Trump's controversies would never have happened if he didn't have Twitter. But that's kind of the problem, since it's his best form of communication. Sean Spicer said to treat his tweets as official statements. Fine, that's great! We'll take them seriously, then. Then today Sarah Huckabee Evans said that she wasn't sure if there were tapes of Comey's conversations, which is something Trump said in a tweet. So she's saying not to trust the tweets. So their advice is: Listen to his tweets, except when you shouldn't?

Note: Sorry this post is so Trump-centric, but he's kind of sucked the air out of the room lately. This week was supposed to be "Infrastructure Week," which would have been interesting to me. But the Comey stuff has taken the attention.

Summary Judgments

I'll miss Bob Stoops. I lived in Oklahoma during the dark ages of OU football: John Blake and Howard Schnellenberger. Yet I somehow became a fan. Then I watched from afar as they won the championship and I ended up going to school at OU, where I saw Adrian Peterson and Jason White play in person. Those were fun years. Stoops made OU matter again, and they haven't really dropped off that much — always in discussion for a Big XII title or a national championship run. I'm still shocked he's retiring at such a young age, but it's worth noting his dad dropped dead on the sidelines at an age two years younger than Stoops is now.  •  •  •  Alyson and I just finished the new season of Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt. Man, that's a good show.  •  •  •  We're also one episode from finishing the first season of Handmaid's Tale. I go back and forth on whether I like it or not, but I know Alyson loves it. I just find it so damned bleak. I love dystopias, but ... there is no hope in Gilead, which makes me depressed. And no, I haven't read the book.  •  •  •  Ran a 4-miler with Alyson's cousin and my friend Paul on Wednesday. It was a record time for me of 41:13, but I walked a few hills. I pushed myself too early and then had nothing left for the hills at the end. My next run is a 5K mud run on Saturday. I'm pretty excited.  •  •  •  We've had a lot of whining lately. A LOT. But we took the kids to the nearby tennis courts to "play" tennis this week. Alyson and I finally got to the point of lightly playing ourselves while Roland chased after balls and Evie tried to hit a ball over the net. She kept saying "I'm a good player!" as she held the ball behind the racket and just kind of tossed it. That's... kind of the best you can expect with 2 year olds.

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