There have been four special elections since the President has completed his hiring process. Those have been for Kansas House District 4 (Wichita area), Montana (whole state), and as of Tuesday, Georgia 6 (Atlanta suburbs) and South Carolina 5 (north-central part, but there's not a nationally recognizable town in the district). There are positives and negatives for both Republicans and Democrats here. Democrats can take a moral victory, while Republicans can take an actual victory. Let me explain.
Republicans won all four races. All four. At the end of the day, they didn't lose a seat. That's great news for the GOP. In fact, let me say it: that's the most important thing for either the GOP or the Dems. While the Dems have gotten close, the GOP has kept winning. Style points don't matter: A win is a win is a win, and right now, in the game of politics, the GOP is winning.
But. A deeper look shows the GOP shouldn't celebrate too much. Each of those four districts were heavily GOP districts. That should be obvious by the fact that the whole reason for there being an election is that Trump appointed GOP colleagues to his Cabinet — this was GOP territory. And yet all four of these races were decided by less than 7 points — single digits. That's important in a broader context:
• Kansas House 4, 2016: Republican won by 31 and Trump won by 27.
• Kansas House 4, 2017: Republican won by 7.
• Georgia House 6, 2016: Republican won by 24 and Trump won by 1.
• Georgia House 6, 2017: Republican won by 4.
• Montana House, 2016: Republican won by 16 and Trump won by 21.
• Montana House, 2017: Republican won by 6.
• South Carolina House 5, 2016: Republican won by 20 and Trump won by 18.
• South Carolina House 5, 2017: Republican won by 3.
If you're into advanced metrics, these districts average out to be about 18.3 percent more Republican (GOP +18.3) than the rest of the country based on the last four elections. And in this round, the GOP-Democrat margin averaged out to be Republican +5 percent (GOP +5). One good political observer noted that Democrats have over performed in all these special elections by at least 7 percent. If you're a Democrat, that's potentially enough to swing the House in 2018 — midterms are usually terrible for the in-power party, and the health care bill probably won't go any better for the GOP than it did for the Democrats.
Both parties are forgetting the lessons they should have learned from the other. The GOP should have learned from the Democrats that messing with health care is really, really hard. It's easy to mess up and hard to get right, especially with a smart opponent. They also should know that their House majority is on a knife's edge, and nearly every midterm ends poorly for the party in power. The Democrats should have learned from the GOP how to be a good minority party. The GOP obstructed, they annoyed, they opposed the Obama administration at every opportunity. AND THEY WON. If you're picking between moral victories and actual victories, actual victories are the most important.
Or, if you want a better version, read what Dan Rather wrote on Facebook. Dude's pretty smart.
Police Shootings
When the black community calls out for justice, they're really tired of police getting off when they shoot unarmed or legally armed black people. I'll set aside the murky situation of the Sylville Smith case in Wisconsin (the cop there also was acquitted of all charges).
• Unarmed Eric Garner was killed by a police officer who used an illegal chokehold on him for selling loose cigarettes on the street. Eleven times Garner said he couldn't breathe. The officer was not indicted.
• Unarmed Terence Crutcher was killed by a police officer who said she feared for her life. Crutcher had his hands above his head when he was shot. The officer was acquitted.
• Philando Castile was killed by a police officer after Castile warned the officer that he had a firearm during a routine traffic stop. The officer fired into a vehicle with Castile's girlfriend and 4-year-old daughter. The officer was acquitted this week.
• Unarmed Michael Brown was killed by a police officer. While the details are quite murky, it's clear to say that the police officer was not indicted.
• 12-year-old Tamir Rice was playing with an Airsoft pistol at a park. Officers never told him to put down the gun, nor did they hear the dispatcher telling them it was a toy. Within 2 seconds of arrival on the scene, they shot and killed Rice. The police officers were not charged (though they were later fired).
• Unarmed Gregory Gunn was Tased three times, beaten with a nightstick and shot five times by a white police officer (the officer claims there was an altercation). The officer has been charged, but not convicted yet.
• Unarmed Samuel DeBose was killed by a police officer after refusing to give his driver's license and pulling away from a routine traffic stop. He was not violent toward the officer, but the officer shot him. The first trial was ruled a mistrial because jurors could not agree. The second trial is at the jury now, but deliberations are in their third day, which is not a great sign for a decision either way.
• Alton Sterling had a firearm, but could not possibly have been wielding it at the time he was shot and killed. He was, at the time of the shooting, pinned to the ground with one officer kneeling on his chest and the other kneeling on his thighs. The officers have not been charged nearly a year later.
• Unarmed Brendon Glenn was killed by a police officer after being shot in the back, apparently while trying to push himself up off the ground. The officer who shot said that Glenn had his hand on his partner's weapon. Video evidence shows otherwise. The officer in question has not been charged as of yet, but the police chief has recommended that charges be filed.
• Freddie Gray was restrained by leg irons and handcuffs in the back of a police van. He was not given a seat belt, and his neck was broken during the ride. The officers were acquitted of wrongdoing.
• Laquan McDonald had been aggressive toward police earlier in the night, but at the time of his death was walking away from the police officer, who had arrived six seconds earlier. The officer shot him 16 times in 15 seconds. The officer has been charged, but is free on bail.
The only exceptions I could find were:
• Michael Slager, who shot Walter Scott in the back as Scott was running away. This was the case with the infamous video tape that made national news. Slager pleaded guilty in May to one count of violating Scott's civil rights in exchange for a likely lighter sentence. (Though it's worth noting his criminal trial for murder ended in a hung jury-caused mistrial. Those murder charges were dismissed as part of his plea deal.)
• Peter Liang, who shot Akai Gurley, was convicted of manslaughter and official misconduct. He was startled in a dark stairwell when he shot his gun. The bullet deflected off a wall and killed Gurley. Though it's worth noting a judge reduced his charges and he will only face probation and community service.
When unarmed black men die, the officers involved are only occasionally charged. It's even more rare that the case gets to a jury. It's even more rare that a jury returns a guilty verdict — I haven't found one, with the possible exception of the Liang case, who wasn't even aiming at the victim. Nearly a dozen deaths, but little justice. In most of these cases, the family has filed a civil case, which is almost always settled out of court for millions of dollars. It's also not an admission of guilt, as people famous for settling will tell you. Simply put, it's not justice.
Summary Judgments
I don't have a lot of time to get into it, but the Senate Obamacare repeal is out. Next week, they'll vote on it. Maybe they'll make concessions to get the four conservatives to vote for it (otherwise, it'll fail). But any act to do so risks the moderates. I don't know what's going to happen, but it may already be passed by the time I write this next week. In short, it looks like a slightly improved House bill that should still leave no one pleased. • • • My next race is on July 4. It's a 4-miler. Not much to say on that front, other than I've been practicing and my times are improving. That said, I've had a few portions of walking lately, and that's not something I like to do. • • • I like to make up songs for the kids a lot. The other day, I sang to Evie "I love my Evie, oh I love her so." Evie: "I don't love you." HARSH. Unsure, I tried again. Same result. RUTHLESS GIRL. Note: She said she loved me a few minutes later.
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