Did you vote on Tuesday? I didn't. Although some in my county had something to vote on (KC's getting a new airport! Woo!), those of us in Liberty did not. Other than a few city elections, there really weren't any major elections in Missouri. Nor were there across the country. But there are a few lessons we can learn now that we have another election's worth of data points.
I think there's a little overreaction to both of the party talking points I've seen so far. On the small scale, I've seen Republicans try to chalk most of Tuesday's results up to "what we expected." And to some degree, they're right. A Democrat won the governorship of New Jersey, which is no surprise. A Democrat won the governorship of Virginia (which was expected, but a GOP win would have meant Democrats were in real trouble). Democrats mostly won things in heavily Democratic places. Just like during the last four special elections, Republicans won races in heavily GOP places. So in the broad sense, not much in the big picture has changed yet.
Some things did change, however. A GOP candidate who ran on Trump-style "law and order" and immigration fears lost the race for governor of Virginia, a state that was "red" within this writer's memories. Chris Christie, a belligerent shell of his former self who was battling with Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback for most unpopular state governor, was replaced as New Jersey governor by a Democrat. In Maine, voters passed Medicaid expansion over the objections of their Republican governor.
There are also some small-scale successes, and I think you can state that without dwelling too much on party affiliation. For instance, a New Jersey politician who declared on social media that the Women's March should have ended earlier so women could get back to the kitchen was defeated by a woman who was inspired to run against him after she saw his social media post. A trans woman in Virginia ran against a man who called himself the "chief homophobe" and the author of an anti-trans "bathroom bill." She ran a campaign that focused on the issues and only briefly touched on her biology, whereas her opponent refused to debate her and also refused to use female pronouns. She not only won, but she was gracious when asked if she had anything to say about her opponent, she said: "I don't attack my constituents. Bob is my constituent now." A man in Hoboken, New Jersey, was elected the first Sikh mayor of that town despite opposition ads that called him a terrorist (Sikhs are not Muslims. But I guess that doesn't matter much to some people.). A former refugee just became Helena, Montana's first black mayor. I have taken out the party affiliations on these more personal stories, but those are exciting stories of taking action, no?
But moving back away from the individual stories and to the bigger picture, Tuesday's election was another signpost. FiveThirtyEight, a good source of politics analysis, noted that American politics only rarely (at most 2-3 times a year?) has these moments where we get to see which way the electoral leaves are blowing. And signposts are showing a big Democratic swing in next year's midterm elections. That's not really a surprise: the opposition party usually wins big in the midterms, and especially against an unpopular president whose party is in control of both houses of Congress. It would be more surprising if the Democrats weren't having success right now.
But looking at those signposts, and you see a pattern. In four special elections since Trump's victory, the GOP has won all four. However, those were all in reliably safe GOP districts, and none of them — NONE — won by more than 8 points. All of them were closer races than expected. The Virginia state legislature went from 2:1 control by Republicans to (possibly... it's unclear at press time) flipping the state assembly narrowly. That's even more than expected there. Women and minorities were many of the winners on Tuesday, and that may continue in the national scale soon.
So what are we seeing? I think it's safe to say that the House is in play for Democrats next year. I don't know if they're quite going to make it (my gut is they fall 2-3 votes short), but the evidence indicates Democrat-leaning voters are energized. Not only that, but they also don't have the baggage (whether real or imagined) of Hillary Clinton weighing them down. Instead, the GOP has the baggage (ditto) of Donald Trump. They also have the baggage of a failed Obamacare repeal and an unpopular tax plan that may or may not be passed.
On the other hand, I'd also note something I've said to my political science friends lately: I feel like the Democrats were far more united and cohesive when the majority party than they are as the minority party. I feel they're still fighting battles from 2016 (as evidenced by the Donna Brazile book) and arguing over the party's direction right now. The GOP, on the other hand, was far more united and cohesive as a minority party. Against Obama, they had a strong, clear message on where they stood and what they stood for. The Obamacare failure and the infighting over the GOP tax cut plan, which is unpopular to the American public but popular to rich donors, has created tensions between Tea Party/Trumpian politicians and more traditional (think the Bushes or Mitt Romney) Republicans. I believe whichever party can get their ducks in a row first will win the midterms next year. But as for right now, it's looking like Democrats will have a big win — how big has yet to be determined.
You're Not Helping
Two racial incidents that made recent headlines were revealed to be hoaxes this week. A black student at the Air Force Academy and another at Kansas State have admitted that the racial slurs they discovered and spoke about were, in fact, written by them. Look: There's a lot of discrimination in the world. You don't have to make it up. You should tell what has actually happened. But with every hoax story like this, ignorance is given evidence. It gives the true racists and people whose heads are buried in the sand a chance to say "See, this racism stuff is made up!" And, at least in these two cases, they were right.
I think it gets taken for granted that the vast, vast, vast, vast number of these cases are not made up. We're seeing the bounce back on sexual assault and sexual harassment: After years of it being a thing people tended not to talk about because they were afraid they wouldn't be believed, women (and men) are starting to be more open about it, and you're seeing some major players in politics and entertainment go down. But hoaxes don't help with being taken seriously.
Summary Judgments
Here's an interesting feature by FiveThirtyEight on a county in Iowa that voted in a landslide for Obama, then a landslide for Trump. • • • North Korea's nuclear weapons are the top-line threat, but people often don't take the rest of their arsenal seriously. Their biological, chemical and traditional weapons could easily devastate and decimate South Korea if war were to happen. Seoul, which is within striking distance of many of these weapons, is bigger than Paris and about the size of Rio de Janeiro by metro area. It would be targeted first. • • • It's not particularly surprising (I knew the answer already), but good video by Half as Interesting on why the U.S.'s land is blocky. • • • A couple cool medical breakthroughs. First, genetically modified mosquitoes are now approved! Second, and even cooler: Check out this cool bandage-gadget that creates much smaller scars, is less painful and easier to apply. Cool job, technology! • • • GOP lawmakers have asked the well-out-of-the-mainstream Roy Moore to step aside from his Senate candidacy if accusations are true about him nearly 40 years ago sexually assaulting a 14-year-old. If he does pull out, I expect him to deny the accusations while saying something like "to avoid further embarrassment to the party and to help us move on as a country, I will not continue with my campaign for Senate." That way he denies the accusations while also pulling out. It's saying "This isn't true, but I'm backing out anyway, just in case." • • • No run story until I start running again. • • • Evie's been doing a lot of baby things lately. She's been talking baby talk, pretending to be a Baby Tiger while I'm a Daddy Tiger (Note: I don't know what it is she wants me to do when we're doing this, I just know I'm supposed to growl and crawl or something. It's not a clear game) and being baby-like. I don't know what this means. Then, like, the next day, she does something super grown-up and big and I don't know what this means. I am quickly learning that 90 percent of parenthood is wondering what the heck is happening and what it means, then moving on to the next thing.
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