A few months ago, I told Alyson that Al Franken was the person I thought would emerge as the Democrats' candidate in 2020. As of Thursday, I don't believe that's true any longer. So in the wake of this week's news, I began to wonder who will emerge without Franken running. That made me wonder if it's too early to talk about this — It's three years away, people! But it's not really. Primary debates in the GOP began in the fall of 2015, so candidates have to be "in it" within two years. Heck, Trump announced his candidacy in spring 2015, so it's closer to a year and a half. Then we've got the bigger issue: fundraising and exposure. Candidates have very little time in the grand scale to build their name recognition and donor base before they run. This is not a crazy exercise.
Let me start with a few assumptions: Hillary Clinton will not run again. She, perhaps more than anyone else, has too much baggage. I will also assume Donald Trump has a) not been impeached and b) is running for a second term. Maybe he quits and throws his weight behind Mike Pence? I doubt it. Trump loves power and the appearance of power too much. I drew this list from three good political websites who've done a similar exercise, originally listing 27 people. I eliminated anyone who I've never heard of who does not have an elected job in Washington or is governor (state officials or mayors, essentially). Also, some of these things may apply to other candidates, but I'm trying to cover a ton of candidates, so... cut me some slack, OK anonymous person in my head?
Most High-Profile
Former V.P. Joe Biden — Pros: The connection to Obama without being Obama. As a white male, he's less threatening to the... let's go with "more close-minded" in our country. He's got a heartbreaking background story and wins the George W. Bush Test (Would you rather have a beer with him or his opponent?) against pretty much everyone. Large contingent of "Biden Would Have Won" fans. More of a centrist than a far left liberal. Cons: He'd be 78 on Inauguration Day, even older than then-74-year-old Donald Trump. Age doesn't exactly shout "progressive party of the future." He does carry some of the Obama baggage. Prone to saying something stupid on accident. Verdict: Among the better options for Democrats.
Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. — Pros: Seems to be the flag-bearer for "progressive ideals." He's been practicing his debate skills on various issues against GOP candidates on CNN that I haven't watched. He has his own cheering section: Bernie Bros, the "Bernie Would Have Won" fans. Great baby cosplay. Perceived victim of DNC shenanigans (overblown, but still the perception). Seems to connect to everyday Americans pretty well. Cons: Oldest candidate in the race. He'd be 79 by Inauguration Day 2020. He lost to Hillary Clinton because he couldn't get the minority vote and he still can't. He lost the debates to her because he got destroyed on foreign policy. I don't think his international trade deal stance will look good in 2020, because it's too similar to Trump's positions. Verdict: I think Bernie will be like Moses: Sees the Promised Land, but one of his disciples makes it while he never makes it himself.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Mass. — A woman! Who's smart! Definitely in the Bernie "progressives" camp (Quick sidebar: Some Democrats get too hung up on labels, which just hurts their party.). I used to love it when she'd go on Jon Stewart's Daily Show and speak brilliantly against Wall Street — she knew what she was talking about and made it understandable, which is a great trait to have. She is one of the most high-profile, influential voices of Democrats. Cons: She would be in her 70s on Inauguration Day 2020. She might come off as "East Coast liberal snob." Also, there's the Mom Test: My Mom doesn't like her. Mom didn't elaborate on why, but there's something off-putting about Warren for many. Maybe she comes off as badgering or whiny? I don't know. Verdict: Is she the Joshua to Sanders' Moses? She has as good a shot as any listed here, and this might be her only opportunity. I feel others might have a better shot, but she's up there.
A-/B+ Candidates
Sen. Cory Booker, N.J. — Pros: Charismatic minority candidate who isn't Obama. High-profile because of frequent television appearances. He's single, ladies. He's young (51 by Election Day). He's funny. He did a lot of things as Newark mayor that are worthy of praise — selfless, hands-on things, as well as bringing in major donations. Cons: Lots of connections to Wall Street. He's voted or held stances that are arguably too pro-business for Democrats. Liberals don't seem to like him very much. He's for raising the retirement age. For everything he does well, there's somebody on this list that does it better. I don't know whether to put this in Pro or Con: He's vegan. Verdict: Probably a better VP candidate (for a Biden or Warren, perhaps?) than a president on his own.
Sen. Kamala Harris, Calif. — Pros: Younger (mid 50s) than frontrunners, woman, African-American and Indian-American. Positioned herself in opposition to Trump on a lot of issues. Very smart. I expect she's a good debater because of her background. I expect she's Cons: Against the death penalty (more a general election problem than primary problem). Lower name recognition than the folks above. I don't know if this helps or hurts: F rating from the NRA (hurts a little, maybe?), got criticized by John McCain for questioning Jeff Sessions too hard (views on this are typically partisan) and signed on to Bernie's Medicare for All plan (helps a little, maybe?). Verdict: I'm bullish on Kamala Harris. She does everything Booker does, but better.
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, N.Y. — Pros: New York senator who isn't Hillary Clinton. Comes off much warmer and less confrontational than Clinton, Warren or Harris. Same age range as Booker and Harris. Makes occasional trips to late night TV shows and comes off well. Started in an upstate New York district, so she knows how to win over rural folks. Started more centrist, but moved more liberal and can convincingly explain why she shifted. Studied in Beijing and China, so has connections there. Sponsored and passed the Zadroga Act (big deal if you know what it is). Cons: Not great name recognition outside those who follow politics. Defended Phillip Morris for a long time as a private defense attorney. Deep connections to Wall Street. Said she doesn't want to run. Verdict: She and Harris are my two favorites right now. I think they're both sharp as a tack and ready to get things done. They both look great in comparison to Donald Trump. But they both need greater name recognition. She'd be great as a VP to Harris, maybe? (Update: Gillibrand said this weekend that Bill Clinton should have resigned over his sexual harassment scandals. To me, this is a) her staking out a moral position and b) getting her name in the news. Both of those are testing the waters of name recognition.)
Middling Candidates
Va. Gov. Terry McAuliffe — Pros: Will be former Va. Gov. in a few months, so has time to run without abandoning his post. Governed effectively in a purple (GOP-controlled state Legislature) state. Raises a hell of a lot of money. Mega ties to the Clintons. Cons: Mega ties to the Clintons. Another nondescript white guy. Verdict: Better behind the scenes than in front of the camera.
Sen. Sherrod Brown, Ohio — Pros: Eagle Scout! Elected Democrat from a swing state! Socially progressive. Vocal critic of Chinese policies rather than just yelling "CHINA!" Supportive of veterans and tough on terrorism compared to other Democrats. Has produced some decent bipartisan bills that actually got signed. Perhaps if Dems want to go back to the white male catalog, he's a good choice?Cons: He's got to win re-election in 2018 first, and his seat is on the GOP target list. Spellcheck wants to change his name to Shred. He's about as reliable a liberal as they come, and "liberal" is an epithet in some states he'd need to win. Verdict: VP candidate? He's a decent choice for Democrats, but he's the white Cory Booker: Everyone else can draw the same people, but better.
Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Minn. — Pros: Visited Iowa. Great political origin story about the birth of her daughter. Democrat from the Upper Midwest, so likely knows how to win in Michigan/Wisconsin/Ohio, too. Has liberal bona fides. Cons: Name recognition. Not the most charismatic senator from her own state. Has taken some strange stances for specific companies, like Schwan's and getting pizza counted as a vegetable... yeah. Verdict: Not bad. She's a likable but unknown Upper Midwest Democrat. If she wants to be President, 2020 might be a good trial run.
Sen. Al Franken, Minn. — Three days ago, he'd have been in the tier above. After the photo and allegations, I think he's fallen this far. Pros: Funny as hell, rolls with the punches, smarter than you'd think. Democrat from an Upper Midwest state. Liberal enough for Democrats. If Donald Trump can overcome the Access Hollywood stuff, maybe two years from now, he can too? Cons: That picture and story will cost him. You can't claim moral authority over Donald Trump when you both have gross sexual incidents. Muddled his first attempt at an apology before getting it right the second time. Verdict: He could have been President, but will never be now.
Gov. John Hickenlooper, Colo. — Pros: Democrat from a (typically) swing state. One of the few who is firmly in the moderate and not far left camp. Willing to work with moderate Republicans like John Kasich. Memorable name. Family connections to Iowa. Cons: Low national profile. Probably can't win the primary. I don't know if this helps or hurts: Has evolved to be pro-marijuana use. Verdict: Just A Guy in a year you probably need to be memorable in some way to win.
Lightning Round of Other Candidates Suggested by One of The Sites I Checked
Bill de Blasio/Mitch Landrieu/Eric Garcetti — Pros: Mayors of New York City, New Orleans and Los Angeles, which requires a lot of fundraising, people and electability skills. De Blasio has a mixed-race family. Garcetti is Mexican-American, Jewish and was a lieutenant in the Navy. Cons: Mayors have never successfully run for President without a governor or Congressional stop first. Verdict: Landrieu has no chance. De Blasio has the best name recognition, but Garcetti seems the best bet from this bunch.
Sen. Jeff Merkley, Ore. — I don't know who this is. Verdict: No.
Rep. Seth Moulton, Mass. — Pros: Very young (41 now) former Marine and Harvard Business School grad. Iraq War veteran. Newlywed. Pro-marijuana, pro-infrastructure, bipartisan record but liberal in major legislation. Cons: I've never heard of him. People never win President from the House. Verdict: Not in 2020. Keep an eye on him; he's a rising star among Democrats.
Rep. Tim Ryan, Ohio — Pros: Unsuccessfully ran against Pelosi for chair of House Democrats. Democrat from a swing state. Cons: Not real well known. I dare you to name an accomplishment of his without looking it up. Verdict: Shrug emoji.
Mark Cuban, billionaire — We've already got a billionaire as president. Verdict: Nah, but it'd be fun.
Mark Zuckerberg, billionaire — See above, but less fun.
Jason Kander — You can't win president these days unless you win some other major race first. Close doesn't count.
Sen. Christopher Murphy, Ct. — Sandy Hook changed his stance on guns. Led a Congressional sit-in on the issue. Won a hotly contested race for his Senate seat. Verdict: Slightly higher profile Just A Guy.
Gov. Steve Bullock, Mont. — I don't know him. Centrist from a red state, but I don't know him and I don't think anyone else does, either. Verdict: Not unless Montana gets a lot more popular.
Rep. John Delaney, Md. — He's the first to officially enter the 2020 Presidential race. I have never heard of him. Outside of my few Maryland readers, I bet you haven't, either. Verdict: Future Martin O'Malley-type Remember That Guy?
Gov. Roy Cooper, N.C. — Well, he's a democratic governor, so... some people are just throwing darts at the board. Verdict: New governor, who dis?
Julian Castro — former San Antonio mayor and former HUD director. Well-liked Hispanic with halfway decent name recognition. Verdict: He and Eric Garcetti are the most likely from this group to make a decent run.
On Al Franken and Sexual Allegations
There are distinctions between Al Franken and GOP figures like Roy Moore and Donald Trump. Franken is accused by one (1) person of inappropriate behavior, and none of the accusations involve him revealing his genitalia. Also, he has apologized and his accuser has accepted his apology. Moore and Trump each have multiple accusations of inappropriate or lewd behavior, corroborating evidence, and — as these things go — are accused of doing worse than Franken. Moore is said to have done terrible things to underage girls. Trump is said to have committed rape and more graphic sexual assaults. If you can find a Moore or Trump apology for any of those, please give me a link.
But those distinctions don't really matter once you get into the realm of "sexual misconduct." Then you have false equivalency arguments being thrown about, and that puts people on the defensive... it gets messy, is the point. And if, like me, you liked Al Franken before this, you suddenly don't have much of a desire to argue in his defense. And that's how the false equivalence ends up being established rather than knocked down.
Republican Retirements
I find CNN to be a bit alarmist in their treatment of President Trump. Not that they're wrong, mind you, but that everything tends to get a little more "play" with headline size and such than it would with other networks. But that doesn't mean that the small scale — individual stories — aren't well researched.
I thought this chart showing the rate of Republican retirements and resignations from the House compared to both the past and the opposite party was surprising. In case you don't want to click the link, more Republicans have departed the House by this time than any of the last six election cycles. There have already been more resignations/retirements than three of those cycles, and is within four of the other three cycles — with more than 14 months left to go. Democrats, on the other hand, are pretty well in line with history. That's surprising news, and it also doesn't take into account the Senate, where at least three Republicans (McCain, Corker and Flake) are leaving.
Summary Judgments
I don't care if a person at the center of controversy (Roy Moore in this case) threatens to sue the newspapers. That's not news. What is news is them filing a lawsuit. At the bottom of that story is a list of three more people, including the President, who've threatened to sue and then never actually did. If you're just threatening it, then it's kind of what we did on the playground any time we got in a fight: "I'll sue you! My dad will sue you!" It's useless unless you follow through. • • • Need some restored faith in celebrities? Visit this link and smile. • • • Here's another bittersweet story, about a horse that had no right to be good — and the owner who wishes he'd believed in it more. It's a story that needs to be made into a movie. • • • My response to this column a friend posted on Facebook is long and complicated. But I'd rather just post it and see what others have to say. It echoes some of my thinking, but I think he conflates "Christianity" and "evangelicals" too easily and paints "evangelicals" as a whole with a bit broad of a brush. I think it's certainly worth a read. • • • Interesting development. Kushner was among my 5 Mueller investigations. • • • I haven't had much time to read on the GOP tax bill. I think it goes through major changes before/unless the Senate passes a version. My gut reaction is it sells people on a tax cut that only lasts 3-4 years before you're actually paying more than you are now. • • • We've been watching YouTube videos of OK Go lately, and Roland wanted to watch one the other night. He kept yelling at me "WAN LE CHUGO!" I sat there dumbfounded as he's getting madder and madder at me for not understanding. After I brought up the list, I finally figured it out the name of the song he wanted: "I Won't Let You Down." But now Alyson and I joke about Juan Le Chugo, who we presume sings the Hispanic version.
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