An Open Letter to Men; and Lessons from the Alabama election

Men. MEN!

Lately you might have heard about all these chicks ladies women coming forward with claims of sexual harassment. You probably have a lot of questions about what this means for you, a man. Well luckily, I'm a man (manly man!), and I've been paying attention to the news. So let me be your guide to the sexual harassment allegations and how you can avoid them. Because it's possible, and there's a two-step process that's easy to follow. Tell your friends!

What's Happening

You know how you like women? (YEAH!) And you think they look fly/hot/cool/whatever the kids say these days? (HELL YEAH!) and you always thought about saying or doing something, but never did because you are either lack the self confidence or have a pesky sense of shame? Well, some men both have the self confidence AND lack a sense of shame. And by "saying or doing something," I mean physically grabbing women or masturbating in front of them or forcibly kissing them or dating underage women or using taxpayer funds to pay for your sexual assault settlements or coerced them into compromising positions in hotel rooms or .... [LIST CONTINUES INDEFINITELY]. And don't think that I'm leaving you out, LGBTQ community. Just because you're not a heteronormative person doesn't mean you're immune from this discussion. Women, too, can be potential harassers, but the vast, vast, vast, vast, vast majority are men.

Who's At Risk

Women in the entertainment industry, music industry, politics, business and more are coming forward saying that they've experienced this sort of assault or harassment. There's the #MeToo movement telling women that they're not alone and that others have experienced similar stories. If you're into doing terrible things to women, maybe you should be out of a job.

Those accused are often losing their jobs, their seats in Congress or GASP! their donors/advertisers. But perhaps most significantly, they're losing their power. And let's face it: Power is the underlying factor (besides the Y chromosome) here. This wouldn't be happening if men everywhere viewed women as equals. That's hard, I know. It's way, way easier to view women as *takes deep breath* maids, China dolls, damsels in distress, assistants, moms (forms include: welfare, soccer, Grizzly, hockey), queens (both real and drama), children, bitches, Pollyannas, Mary Sues, women in refrigerators, babysitters, secretaries, playthings, mistresses, underlings, weaklings, servants, Mrs. Pac-Man, Wendy Koopa, "sexy" professionals (forms include: nurse, teacher, secretary, maid, farmer, mechanic, masseuse, carny?), whores, prostitutes, ladies of the night, ring girls, the Girl from The Ring, pixies, Madonnas, virgins, rewards/prizes and property. *inhales sharply*

It's easy to view women that way because a lot of that is written into our pop culture. You see it in video games, movies, music, TV shows, pamphlets, books, tomes, takeout menus, and legislation.  Great, so I'm off the hook! It's society's fault! NOPE. Pop culture doesn't make you do those things. It might enable those things, but it doesn't excuse it. At the end of the day, society may let you get away with something, but it doesn't make you do it. Society and pop culture can lead you (you're a horse in this analogy, keep up) to water, but it can't make you drink (though women aren't water, so this analogy doesn't work right, but you get the point).

How To Avoid It

How do I avoid sexual harassment? Women are complex creatures, and I just don't know what they want! How can I tell if what I'm doing will make me lose my power/position/job/importance? How do I know if I should sexually harass or assault or not? It's so confusing. You might ask those questions to yourself if you are a man. If you're asking yourself those questions, you probably already need to hear the answer. So here's my two-step answer to avoid sexual harassment and sexual assault. It's proven by hundreds, thousands, millions, perhaps billions of men the world over.

Step One: Don't. 

Just don't. You know that thing you're already thinking about? Don't. I can tell you about all the times I haven't sexually harassed or assaulted someone. There was yesterday. There was last week. Heck, there was even the time I was an editor and had women working for me, and I somehow managed not to sexually harass them. Women will tell you if they want to make a situation sexual. Don't make that decision for them. Or don't put them in a position where they might feel compelled or coerced into making a decision they wouldn't normally make. Maybe those last two sentences are confusing, so let me boil it down for you: Don't. Just don't.

Step Two: Ask First. Ask Nicely. See Step One.

Did you read that first step? Maybe you should read it again.

But what if I really want to tell a woman how big my genitalia is? First of all, sure. Sure it is. Go back to Step One. But what if I think she would like it? Did she tell you that or are you presuming? Go back to Step One. But what if she's asking for it? That's not a thing. Go back to Step One. But what if...? Stop. Stop it. You can keep coming up with what ifs, but it's tactically and strategically and morally and logically smarter to just Go back to Step One.

That's it. Simple. Easy. Tell your friends.

Lessons from the Alabama Senate race

1) The GOP is going to have to fight to keep both chambers of Congress. Democrats are fired up and ready to vote. Every election — even those the GOP has won — has shown a heavy swing toward Democrats. The House was already in play for 2018, because all the Democrats need is about two dozen seats to win control of that chamber. The Senate was less likely. The GOP had a 52-48 advantage, and the 2018 Senate map was tilted heavily toward the Republicans, in that nearly all the seats up were Democratic seats. Even if the Dems flipped the two most likely candidates (Nevada and Arizona), they still would have had to hold on to all their seats AND flip somewhere far more GOP-friendly, like beating Ted Cruz in Texas. But with Alabama already flipped and a 51-49 margin, the Dems now face the easier task of holding on to all their seats (not easy, but doable) and flipping Nevada and Arizona (polls show the Democrat ahead right now, but it's way early). So rather than coast through 2018 without spending as heavily, the GOP will have to invest if it wants to keep either or both chambers of Congress.

2) Mitch McConnell is in a battle with Steve Bannon. This was etched in pencil and is now written in pen. Of all people, Donald Trump is in between the two. Bannon wants to target "establishment" candidates, namely those supported by people like McConnell. McConnell thinks the Bannon acolytes are too extremist, and can't win in a general election. Trump endorsed Luther Strange (establishment) in the Alabama GOP primary, even though he's far more similar to Roy Moore. Then after Moore won the primary, he endorsed Roy Moore (Bannon). Now that Moore lost, Trump is claiming that Moore was too extremist to win and he knew it all along (sure you did, Mr. President). Bannon and McConnell seem to be diametrically opposed and causing a fissure in the party. Meanwhile, the Democrats are eager to pick up the pieces.

3) The tax bill has to pass soon or it'll never pass at all. This is more of a practical issue for McConnell and the GOP. There was one defection in the Senate for the GOP tax bill: Tennessee Sen. Bob Corker. The bill passed 51-49. Doug Jones likely won't take office until later this month, which is a deadline for the GOP. If they can't ram the tax bill through conference committee in a matter of weeks, then the bill is living on a knife's edge at a 50-50 vote. But there's an assumption there that the conference committee can smooth out the details to make everyone happy in both the House and the Senate. But this gives senators on the edge (Jeff Flake? Susan Collins? John McCain?) a lot more power to stand strong on their issues, which may create problems in the House (Flake/Collins/McCain's desires don't line up with the Freedom Caucus at all). UPDATE SINCE I WROTE THIS: The GOP is rushing. Marco Rubio made a demand, and since they had to have his vote, the bill writers capitulated. They want this bill to pass, they don't want Doug Jones to vote on it, and they want to vote before America has more time to think about how much they don't like the bill. Sounds great, right? I'm sure it'll pass at this point, because the GOP is kind of all-or-nothing on it and need to pretend like they did something popular, even if that's not true. 

4) Donald Trump is a drag on his party's candidates. It's easily forgotten based on the results of the 2016 election, but neither Trump nor Hillary Clinton were popular. Someone had to win the race anyway. But following that election, one is off the political table. Which leaves only one unpopular politician left. There's no singular Democratic bogeyman out there.

5) African Americans decided this election. White men voted overwhelmingly for Roy Moore (72 percent). White women voted for Roy Moore, but with less of a margin than white men (63 percent). The Alabama election was largely driven by turnout and the black vote. African Americans voted for Doug Jones. There's no wiggle room in that sentence — 96 percent of black voters picked Doug Jones. They also came to the polls, increasing turnout from 20 percent of the electorate to nearly 30 percent. African Americans are a powerful bloc when they choose to vote.

Summary Judgments

Roland put on some reindeer antlers the other day. "I'm a rhinoceros!" he said. So close.

Domino Rally

I had this whole thing written on Tuesday about how I didn't think the tax bill was going to pass. Then the GOP started making major concessions to their holdouts. As of this writing, there are only three unofficial holdouts left, but my gut feeling is that it gets passed. Which sucks for a myriad of reasons and isn't terrible for a few others that I was going to get into, but... well, even if it does, it's not the biggest story of the week.

That would be the plea deal taken this morning by Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, formerly the National Security Advisor of President Trump. I wrote these sentences on Tuesday for this week's post: "In my big write-up on the Mueller investigations, I left one out: Lt. Gen. Flynn and his son. I'd say he's in just as much hot water as Manafort et al. He's my next most likely to be indicted." I didn't think it would happen within the week.

I'll be closely watching the news today to see what trickles out about Flynn's plea deal, but let's summarize the main takeaways:

Mueller is gunning for the top. Flynn was the national security advisor and one of Trump's closest allies. In this post from Dec. 15 last year, I wrote that he was "highly troubling" even before he took office. But while Flynn's plea deal doesn't necessarily put him on the side of angels, it does smell of a something larger at foot. Mueller, as I've said repeatedly, is a smart and methodical man. He had Flynn dead to rights. If the trail of breadcrumbs stopped at Mike Flynn, he wouldn't have offered a very, VERY lenient deal. The deal sounds like this: You testify about "very senior leadership" in the Trump campaign, and I'll let your son off the hook and only convict you of one minor count. But think about what Mueller is giving up there. He's giving up a major conviction (lying to the FBI is minor in the grand scheme of things) against a Trump Cabinet member and his son. Why would he do that? Because he's aiming higher. So that leads to the next question: Who is higher than campaign manager Paul Manafort and National Security Advisor Mike Flynn? The list is short, and comes down to probably two people: Jared Kushner or Donald Trump (Update just before I publish: It's Kushner according to some reports). If you come at the king, you best not miss. Mueller is a lot closer to making sure he doesn't miss. Further, you don't give up that much unless you know you're getting something that is useful. Mueller isn't happy aiming at minibosses. He is coming for the king.

Trump can't distance himself from this. Maybe he didn't know Papadapolous all that well. He dropped Manafort in August 2016 and is pretending that his time as campaign manager meant nothing. But Trump can't claim the same about Flynn. Flynn was his national security advisor. Sure, he was only in the office for about a month, but he was also a frequent presence on the campaign trail. In fact, it was Flynn who popularized the "Lock Her Up!" chant.

Flynn helps Mueller close in on obstruction of justice. This was pointed out by FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. Fired FBI director James Comey testified that Donald Trump told him "I hope you can see your way clear to letting this go, to letting Flynn go. He is a good guy." As Bacon points out, Trump fired the FBI director for not letting go of an investigation of a man who was in enough legal jeopardy to be charged by a grand jury and plead guilty. If Mueller is investigating for obstruction of justice, this doesn't prove that, but it reinforces a pattern of Trump behavior.

UPDATE: Finally, Trump's team isn't sure they have the facts on their side. There's an old legal adage: If you have the facts, pound the facts. If you have the law, pound the law. If you have neither, pound the table. Trump's team is not pounding the facts. Over the weekend, his lawyers said that the President can't be charged with obstruction of justice. That's pounding the law and table at the same time. Most of what I've heard from them has been technical arguments rather than practical "He's innocent" arguments. There may be a reason for that.

I named this post "Domino Rally" after an old toy set that doesn't exist any longer. That set included a row of dominoes attached to a board with hinges at the bottom to quickly put them back up. I had this one. When dominoes are in this method, there is no chance that they don't fall over — they WILL. Mueller isn't setting up dominoes. He's going to eBay and buying Domino Rally.

Learning Lessons

I've learned a lesson about the distinction between Roy Moore/Donald Trump and Al Franken/others. The lesson was taught to me by a White House official quoted in a CNN story about that distinction. What makes Donald Trump and Roy Moore different than Al Franken is that Trump and Moore have never admitted fault, whereas Franken has. (Note: I defended Franken early on when he apologized for what seemed at the time to be an isolated incident. Now that there are several others, it is a pattern and is no longer defensible.)

I think this teaches a bad lesson to politicians — if you never admit fault, then we don't know whether you did or didn't do something. If you never admit fault, then the truth is "impossible to know," so it becomes viewed as partisan. If you never admit fault, then you can go on and ignore the substantial, heavily documented statements made by accusers. If you never admit fault, then you are the victim from these desperate attempts to ruin your name. If you never admit fault, then you're innocent. If you never admit fault, you're daring people to answer this question: who do you want to believe, these nobodies or this somebody? If you never admit fault, there is no consequence. If you remain defiant and obstinate and bull-headed long enough, you win. That's a dangerous lesson for our politicians that is on display on the national stage. I'd rather have leaders who admit their faults.

But I'd also like to draw a line in the sand: I think Franken should resign. I think Roy Moore should drop out. I think Rep. John Conyers should quit. I think Donald Trump should have quit. I think Bill Clinton should have as well. It seems both parties are too reluctant to oust their members out of fear that they might lose political power. That sends an entirely wrong message: Political power is more important than doing the right thing (or that doing the right thing is politically stupid). Each side has to say that morality matters. If you're a Democrat and you let Al Franken/John Conyers off the hook, then you're saying that Trump/Moore should be off the hook. And if you're a Republican calling for the head of Al Franken and John Conyers, you're also saying that Trump/Moore should be ousted, too. For the Democrats, Sen. Kristen Gillibrand (who took Hillary Clinton's old Senate seat in New York) made a bold move: She said that in retrospective, she thinks Bill Clinton should have resigned. It positions her as taking a moral stance and sets her apart from both her colleagues (any who jump on now will be seen as latecomers) and the Clintons. I told you last time: Keep your eye on Gillibrand.

While yes, there are occasionally women who want to take powerful men down with lies, most of these above cases are not just one incident and they are (as demonstrated by the Washington Post/James O'Keefe/Project Veritas incident) well researched and fact checked. These accusations are not coming out in the Enquirer or some false-on-its-face checkout aisle rag. They're coming from the Washington Post and the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal, etc. These are the most reputable sources of journalism in the country.

Summary Judgments

Alyson and I disagree over the potential for nuclear power. I am more bullish about it, and she's more bearish. But this video by Wendover Productions does a good job explaining the problem — what to do with the waste?  •  •  •  Another good one by Half as Interesting (same guy as Wendover Productions, just shorter videos) about the only sovereign nation without any territory — but with passports, money and stamps! It's fascinating, and makes me want to visit Rome, if only for the experience of visiting a country that only half exists.  •  •  •  Evie has been a real handful lately at day care and at home. But she's also really funny when she's happy. Alyson took the kids shopping on Thursday and told them they were going to Michael's. Evie: "Your-kles?"