Domino Rally

I had this whole thing written on Tuesday about how I didn't think the tax bill was going to pass. Then the GOP started making major concessions to their holdouts. As of this writing, there are only three unofficial holdouts left, but my gut feeling is that it gets passed. Which sucks for a myriad of reasons and isn't terrible for a few others that I was going to get into, but... well, even if it does, it's not the biggest story of the week.

That would be the plea deal taken this morning by Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, formerly the National Security Advisor of President Trump. I wrote these sentences on Tuesday for this week's post: "In my big write-up on the Mueller investigations, I left one out: Lt. Gen. Flynn and his son. I'd say he's in just as much hot water as Manafort et al. He's my next most likely to be indicted." I didn't think it would happen within the week.

I'll be closely watching the news today to see what trickles out about Flynn's plea deal, but let's summarize the main takeaways:

Mueller is gunning for the top. Flynn was the national security advisor and one of Trump's closest allies. In this post from Dec. 15 last year, I wrote that he was "highly troubling" even before he took office. But while Flynn's plea deal doesn't necessarily put him on the side of angels, it does smell of a something larger at foot. Mueller, as I've said repeatedly, is a smart and methodical man. He had Flynn dead to rights. If the trail of breadcrumbs stopped at Mike Flynn, he wouldn't have offered a very, VERY lenient deal. The deal sounds like this: You testify about "very senior leadership" in the Trump campaign, and I'll let your son off the hook and only convict you of one minor count. But think about what Mueller is giving up there. He's giving up a major conviction (lying to the FBI is minor in the grand scheme of things) against a Trump Cabinet member and his son. Why would he do that? Because he's aiming higher. So that leads to the next question: Who is higher than campaign manager Paul Manafort and National Security Advisor Mike Flynn? The list is short, and comes down to probably two people: Jared Kushner or Donald Trump (Update just before I publish: It's Kushner according to some reports). If you come at the king, you best not miss. Mueller is a lot closer to making sure he doesn't miss. Further, you don't give up that much unless you know you're getting something that is useful. Mueller isn't happy aiming at minibosses. He is coming for the king.

Trump can't distance himself from this. Maybe he didn't know Papadapolous all that well. He dropped Manafort in August 2016 and is pretending that his time as campaign manager meant nothing. But Trump can't claim the same about Flynn. Flynn was his national security advisor. Sure, he was only in the office for about a month, but he was also a frequent presence on the campaign trail. In fact, it was Flynn who popularized the "Lock Her Up!" chant.

Flynn helps Mueller close in on obstruction of justice. This was pointed out by FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. Fired FBI director James Comey testified that Donald Trump told him "I hope you can see your way clear to letting this go, to letting Flynn go. He is a good guy." As Bacon points out, Trump fired the FBI director for not letting go of an investigation of a man who was in enough legal jeopardy to be charged by a grand jury and plead guilty. If Mueller is investigating for obstruction of justice, this doesn't prove that, but it reinforces a pattern of Trump behavior.

UPDATE: Finally, Trump's team isn't sure they have the facts on their side. There's an old legal adage: If you have the facts, pound the facts. If you have the law, pound the law. If you have neither, pound the table. Trump's team is not pounding the facts. Over the weekend, his lawyers said that the President can't be charged with obstruction of justice. That's pounding the law and table at the same time. Most of what I've heard from them has been technical arguments rather than practical "He's innocent" arguments. There may be a reason for that.

I named this post "Domino Rally" after an old toy set that doesn't exist any longer. That set included a row of dominoes attached to a board with hinges at the bottom to quickly put them back up. I had this one. When dominoes are in this method, there is no chance that they don't fall over — they WILL. Mueller isn't setting up dominoes. He's going to eBay and buying Domino Rally.

Learning Lessons

I've learned a lesson about the distinction between Roy Moore/Donald Trump and Al Franken/others. The lesson was taught to me by a White House official quoted in a CNN story about that distinction. What makes Donald Trump and Roy Moore different than Al Franken is that Trump and Moore have never admitted fault, whereas Franken has. (Note: I defended Franken early on when he apologized for what seemed at the time to be an isolated incident. Now that there are several others, it is a pattern and is no longer defensible.)

I think this teaches a bad lesson to politicians — if you never admit fault, then we don't know whether you did or didn't do something. If you never admit fault, then the truth is "impossible to know," so it becomes viewed as partisan. If you never admit fault, then you can go on and ignore the substantial, heavily documented statements made by accusers. If you never admit fault, then you are the victim from these desperate attempts to ruin your name. If you never admit fault, then you're innocent. If you never admit fault, you're daring people to answer this question: who do you want to believe, these nobodies or this somebody? If you never admit fault, there is no consequence. If you remain defiant and obstinate and bull-headed long enough, you win. That's a dangerous lesson for our politicians that is on display on the national stage. I'd rather have leaders who admit their faults.

But I'd also like to draw a line in the sand: I think Franken should resign. I think Roy Moore should drop out. I think Rep. John Conyers should quit. I think Donald Trump should have quit. I think Bill Clinton should have as well. It seems both parties are too reluctant to oust their members out of fear that they might lose political power. That sends an entirely wrong message: Political power is more important than doing the right thing (or that doing the right thing is politically stupid). Each side has to say that morality matters. If you're a Democrat and you let Al Franken/John Conyers off the hook, then you're saying that Trump/Moore should be off the hook. And if you're a Republican calling for the head of Al Franken and John Conyers, you're also saying that Trump/Moore should be ousted, too. For the Democrats, Sen. Kristen Gillibrand (who took Hillary Clinton's old Senate seat in New York) made a bold move: She said that in retrospective, she thinks Bill Clinton should have resigned. It positions her as taking a moral stance and sets her apart from both her colleagues (any who jump on now will be seen as latecomers) and the Clintons. I told you last time: Keep your eye on Gillibrand.

While yes, there are occasionally women who want to take powerful men down with lies, most of these above cases are not just one incident and they are (as demonstrated by the Washington Post/James O'Keefe/Project Veritas incident) well researched and fact checked. These accusations are not coming out in the Enquirer or some false-on-its-face checkout aisle rag. They're coming from the Washington Post and the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal, etc. These are the most reputable sources of journalism in the country.

Summary Judgments

Alyson and I disagree over the potential for nuclear power. I am more bullish about it, and she's more bearish. But this video by Wendover Productions does a good job explaining the problem — what to do with the waste?  •  •  •  Another good one by Half as Interesting (same guy as Wendover Productions, just shorter videos) about the only sovereign nation without any territory — but with passports, money and stamps! It's fascinating, and makes me want to visit Rome, if only for the experience of visiting a country that only half exists.  •  •  •  Evie has been a real handful lately at day care and at home. But she's also really funny when she's happy. Alyson took the kids shopping on Thursday and told them they were going to Michael's. Evie: "Your-kles?"