I warned last week that I likely wouldn't be able to post on time, and that ended up being correct. We moved to Liberty, and so the process of moving has kept me unable to write until now. This will be your catch-up post, and then I'll have a regular post on Thursday.
State of the Races
On the Democrat side, it's all over but the details. Sanders wins either 1) states with a small delegate count or 2) barely wins. And margin is important, as the Democratic party decides pledged delegates proportionally. Saturday was the race in miniature: Sanders won Kansas and Nebraska. But Clinton won more delegates because she won the biggest prize, Louisiana, by a huge margin. Clinton leads the next six states by HUGE margins — and five of the six are states with more than 100 delegates (Michigan, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Illinois). In fact, only one poll taken since February has shown Sanders to be within 10 points of Clinton (!). Sanders is close or winning a few states yet to come, like Wisconsin and Utah, but they're small potatoes.
On the GOP side, there's something that's been missed by nearly every outlet about Trump's "Rise to Power." No Republican candidate has won 50 percent in any state. Again, because it's significant: No Republican has won 50 percent yet anywhere. That includes Trump. The fact is that Trump is winning a plurality, but not a majority. He's winning because his opposition is splitting its vote.
And at this point, it's important to each of his three opponents that they all stay in. No one other than Kasich can beat Trump in Ohio — and he just might. No one other than Cruz can beat Trump in the Midwest and states with a high evangelical population. Rubio won Minnesota and Puerto Rico. Only by Cruz/Kasich/Rubio staying in and winning enough delegates each can they prevent Trump from winning the nomination. If so, each of the three will have a chance come the lottery ticket that is a contested convention.
But there is a word of warning, particularly that Cruz should have learned. I heard from many conservative friends that Cruz won the Battle for Iowa but lost the War for the Nomination. His tactics against Carson and Rubio turned many against him. Likewise, if Rubio/Cruz/Kasich prompt a contested convention, that's good for each of them individually. But it may cause a split in the Republican party if the guy who won the most votes (Trump, theoretically), is not the guy who wins the nomination. I could easily see Trump going independent if the GOP doesn't pick him at the convention.
Quick Hits on Moving
• Having two kids around does not help with getting rid of clutter. My parents watched the kids until Saturday, and that was when our progress in unpacking ended abruptly.
• We've given the kids their own room. So far, so good, but I will admit to using one room as "kid jail," on Sunday morning. I blocked them in with a gate, and let them play while I went around the house doing stuff. This was less successful than I'd hoped, but the idea has potential.
• Our house is still full of boxes and disarray. We hired movers to move all the things to our house, which was a great idea. But we're still not able to find nearly anything. Where are the needle-nose pliers/soap/kids? I know we have at least two... I just had them a minute ago... I saw them and said, "Oh, that's where they are.. I'll need to remember that for later."
Summary Judgments
For some of the day on Monday, nbcnews.com was linking to their 2014 election results page. I was very confused why I the midterm elections from two years ago were suddenly top news. • • • Michael Bloomberg is not running for President. He spoke at my OU graduation, and I thought he was phenomenal. However, I think he would have split votes with Hillary, which is something he didn't want to do. Also, this race already has one too many billionaires. • • • I'm a longtime fan of the Chiefs. Therefore, I couldn't be more excited that Peyton Manning is retiring. I'm so sick of him being so good. • • • Lately, thinking ahead has scared me. The next Leap Day will be when the kids are either in school or ready for school. HOLY CRAP. It's only nine years until your mortgage payment goes down. UGH WHY? I will be 60 when we pay off the mortgage. I'LL BASICALLY BE DEAD. I'd rather think about things that are less scary, like what's for dinner on Friday. Pulled pork sounds great and I won't be aging. Food is my worry blocker.
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