Hillary was leading in polls by roughly 20 percent on average. And she lost. Surprises like this — and this is a historic surprise — do happen, and it causes the political science world to get excited. "Maybe we don't have this thing figured out, huh?" they (we?) say to themselves. It's a smaller-scale equivalent of a major astrological discovery, like proof of gravitational waves. Surprises are fun and interesting, and cause discussion. It's why people study these things. I don't want to downplay the size of this upset.
BUT. Aw, there had to be a but, right? This doesn't mean that political science should be completely discounted, and it's not as big of a win for Sanders as you think.
On the first point, sometimes the unlikely happens. That's partly math — outliers and unlikely events do have some probabilistic chance of occurring — and partly logic. So just because this series of polls were way off doesn't mean all polls should be ignored. They're a predictive tool, but they're not perfect.
And on the second issue: Sanders won Michigan, but by a little bit (2%). Meanwhile, Clinton won Mississippi by a huge margin (83-17%). Delegates are awarded proportionally. So although Sanders won Michigan, Clinton not only won more delegates, she increased the size of her lead in the delegate count.
The speculation will run rampant for only one week. There are a huge number of delegates on Tuesday: Illinois, Ohio, Florida, Missouri and North Carolina. In my opinion, that will be the day that decides the Democratic nomination.
As for the GOP... either stop Trump on Tuesday in Ohio/Florida or prepare for Trump to be your candidate. He is unlikely to beat either Democrat, but a President Trump is more likely than it was.
Commercial Madness
A commercial on the radio here cracks me up. It uses the tagline "Think you're fat? You may just be bloated!" It goes on to say that a pill you take will cause your belly to unbloat, I guess.
There's a lot to unpack here. Let's start with the thought process they want people to have:
Commercial: "Think you're fat?"
Audience: *looks down, sighs sadly but knowingly.* Yes, probably.
Commercial: "You may just be bloated!"
Audience: Oh, thank God! I'm not really fat!
Commercial: "Take this pill, and you can cause your bloating to go away!"
Audience: You mean I can lose weight with the minimum of effort? I'll do it!
Or how about applying their message to any number of other issues:
• Think you're ugly? You may just have bad skin! Try this ointment!
• Think you're diabetic? You may just have a bad pancreas! Try chia granola to improve pancreas health!
• Think you're bald? You may just have weak follicles! Take this pill to improve follicular fortitude!
• Think you're white? You may just have a melanin deficiency!
Color Clashes
Sports teams are always trying to reinvent the wheel as far as jerseys are concerned, but I've seen a rising trend that needs to stop: Dark jerseys v. dark jerseys. The NFL experimented with both teams using a head-to-toe color approach with the "Color Rush" series this year. Here's a picture of the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets:
Another incident recently was my beloved Oklahoma City Thunder playing in dark orange against the really dark green Milwaukee Bucks.
I'm colorblind. Mostly red-green. I honestly cannot tell the Jets and Bills apart without staring at it for 10 seconds. The Thunder game was another where my colorblindness caused too much pause. I kept thinking about what would happen if I played for either team, and I'd probably have to sit out of the game, because I couldn't tell the jerseys apart (Also, I am short and fat, but follow me on the fantasy.).
Jersey designers, I'm not the only colorblind person. Please choose one team to be "light" and one to be "dark." One team can be white and the other a dark color. Or choose one to be a powder blue or yellow or a pastel color, and the other to be a bold color. If you can't make this work, you're a bad jersey designer.
Summary Judgments
So West Virginia passes a law allowing unpasteurized milk. Lawmakers celebrate by drinking raw milk. Do you think any of them got sick? Of course they did. • • • I've seen several news reports, like this one, that suggest President Obama is giving the cold shoulder to Nancy Reagan's funeral. It leaves out historical context: Sitting presidents have only attended the funerals of two former First Ladies: Jackie Kennedy and Eleanor Roosevelt. Both were symbols of something greater. Now, sitting First Ladies (as Michelle Obama is doing) do attend the funerals of former First Ladies, but not sitting Presidents. Nancy Reagan was important, but I wouldn't put her on Jackie O or Eleanor Roosevelt level. • • • At one point today, the top eight stories on cnn.com were related to Trump. The top eight! And people wonder why he has so much power...
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