What the Sit-In Did

In theory, the Democrat sit-in at the House has done nothing. Its stated objective -- to get the House GOP to at least vote on a gun control bill -- won't happen until July 6 at least. But I believe the sit-in has already done plenty.

Rep. John Lewis is basically unassailable. He was/is a Civil Rights era icon. You can't be forceful with him (arrest a Civil Rights icon? have security show him out?) and expect to come out looking well. With him as your standard bearer, it was a smart move for Dems. So what did the sit-in actually do?

Four things: 1) It changed the conversation from "what can we do" to "why is the GOP obstructing a vote?" The GOP has the votes. But they know that if they allow a vote, they'll be tied to the argument of letting those on the no-fly list have guns. By not allowing a vote, it appears obstructionist for no reason. 2) It was a sign that the Democrats are going to have a spine. This has been a problem for Democrats. I'll leave it there. 3) It made the Republicans who tried to break up the sit-in look silly. Outspoken Texas Rep. Louie Gohmert showed up, yelled "The problem is radical Islam!" as though there hadn't been Colorado Springs or Charleston or other, non-ISIS inspired attacks. Further, if that is the problem, then why not keep those identified as terrorists from buying guns? It's a poor argument. 4) It may just be a coincidence, but it changed the news coverage for the week. Donald Trump gave his big anti-Hillary speech yesterday that he's been touting for weeks. And it's not going to be on the front of any paper, because of the sit-in. Comparatively, no one is talking about his speech. It was brilliant timing.

Inside Missouri Politics

To get myself more familiar with statewide politics, I'm going to have an occasional recurring segment. I'll take a look at the state elected officials, the districts, etc., and so on. Today, I wanted to focus on the U.S. House districts in Missouri. I'll analyze how the district leans and how the district has changed since 1970 on redistricting maps, because I'm kind of a redistricting nerd (thanks, newspaper career!) and because it informs me about the districts. One note: Missouri lost a district in the last Census, and the gains will be noted in the respective districts.

District 1
This is downtown St. Louis. Over the next 30 years, the district moved almost entirely north of I-64, to the north and west a bit, before taking back a little space to the south in the last redistricting. This is probably the least changed district of any of them. It may not surprise you that this has been Democratic since 1949. It may surprise you that the representative has been either Bill Clay Sr. or Bill (aka Lacy) Clay Jr. since.... 1969 (!).

District 2
This could be described as "suburban St. Louis." Traditionally, it hugged District 1 on the west and north sides, even gaining an extra couple counties to the northwest in the 2000 redistricting. However, after the last Census, it's been rejiggered (technical term). It's lost some of south St. Louis and almost everything north of I-70 while gaining some southern suburbs. It's more compact than before, which could mean it's growing. Since 1993, this district has voted for Republicans. First Jim Talent, who became a senator; then Todd Akin, who gained national notoriety and did not become a senator; and now Ann Wagner, who won by 23 percent over her opponent in 2013.

District 3
This one's changed a lot. It used to be southern suburban St. Louis back in 1970, before gaining territory to the south (St. Genevieve/St. Mary) and remaining largely unchanged for a few decades. Then 2010 came, and the Third lost St. Genevieve/St. Mary and most of its Missouri River territory, wrapping around Districts 1 and 2 and gaining territory above the Missouri River north of St. Louis up to Elsberry, then gaining everything through Jefferson City (!) and even down to Osage Beach (!!) in the central part of the state. This likely means the district lost population AND was given much of the dissolved district's territory. This district went Democrat from 1949 to 2013, with notables Russ Carnahan and former House Majority Leader Dick Gephardt coming from the Third. In 2013, however, it flopped red to Blaine Luetkemeyer.

District 4
At first glance, this district hasn't changed much. A closer inspection shows that's not true. In 1970, this included KC's east suburbs, following the Missouri River to just west of Columbia, then diagonally moving southwest to the stateliness, including Lamar but not Joplin. In 1980, it dropped some central Missouri territory along I-70 and picked up the Lake of the Ozarks and through Mountain Grove and Ft. Leonard Wood. By 1990, it had ceded all of Jackson County (KC) and Mountain Grove/Ft. Leonard Wood and gained back a bit of I-44 and I-70 territory. The next Census had it gain back Lamar and add a county north of the Missouri River just east of Clay County, while losing much of the Lake of the Ozarks and some of the south and east KC suburbs. Now, the district has lost much of its I-70 territory, while gaining Columbia. It stretches from Lamar to Rich Hill to Columbia to wrap around Camdenton/Lake Ozark and pick up Lebanon. Like the last district, this was Democratic from 1955-2011, represented notably by Ike Skelton for nearly 35 years. Vicky Hartzler won the seat for Republicans in 2011, and has occupied since. I'd say that the redistricting has made this a more Republican-leaning district, as democratic areas like Jackson County have been replaced by Republican-leaning southwest and central Missouri.

District 5
Essentially, this is "Kansas City + change." It used to be western Jackson County only. Then it became central-west Jackson County. Then it added a bit of territory to the east and south (it looks like Blue Springs was not included, oddly) in 2000. Then 2010 made a big change. It looks like all of Blue Springs and most of Lee's Summit were lost to District 6 and Harrisonville was lost to District 4, but then adding Ray, Lafayette and Saline counties along the Missouri River/I-70. This probably means a population decline in KC. This district has only voted for one Republican since the Great Depression — Albert Reeves Jr. for one term in 1947. Former KC mayor Emanuel Cleaver is the current seat holder.

District 6
What was once "northwest Missouri" is now "north Missouri + change." In 1970, it was everything north of the Missouri River until and including Kirksville. Through 2000, it changed little, ceding Kirksville but gaining some territory to the west of Columbia and curling in to get north Blue Springs, then only losing Ray County. In 2010, it absorbed much of the vanishing ninth district (it means a population decline, probably.). Now the district wraps in from Lee's Summit to Liberty where I live to... well, draw a line straight east from Kansas City, and everything to the north of that is probably the Sixth. As you'd expect from a more rural district, it's been more Republican than other districts, but not dramatically so. It's been Republican since 1976, with an 8-year blue streak for Pat Danner in the 1990s. Sam Graves has held the seat since 2001.

District 7
Super easy. This is "Southwest Missouri." There've been a few line wobbles, but it's largely unchanged: Springfield/Joplin/I-44 corridor/Branson. It's heavily Republican and has been since... 1935 (!) under Dewey Short. In fact, the only Democrat in that time was... Charlie Brown? Well, Charles Brown in 1957-1961. Roy Blunt, current U.S. senator, left this district to run for Senate. He was replaced by Billy Long.

District 8
This used to be central-south Missouri, including Columbia and Jeff City and Ft. Leonard Wood. But since the 10th District was dissolved after 1980, it has essentially become "southeast Missouri." It's picked up a little territory to the west and north, now encompassing much of Ft. Leonard Wood, but it's largely unchanged since 1980. It stretches almost all the way to Branson on the west, nearly to Lebanon on the northwest, and nearly to the St. Louis suburbs on the far northeast side. It's been in Republican hands — as you might expect for a rural district — since 1981, including a run from 1983 to 2013 by either Bill or his wife, Jo Ann, Emerson. After she resigned to be CEO of the National Rural Electric Co-op, Jason Smith was elected to succeed her.

Dissolved districts
District 10 used to be Southeast Missouri. It dissolved after 1980. District 9 would best be described as "northwest-ish of St. Louis along the Missouri River." It was dissolved in 2010. It doesn't appear the state will lose any seats in 2020.

Gun Laws

Here's an example of how absurd our priorities are: I have to have a permit in this and all our neighboring states to go fishing. The state knows who I am and if I should be allowed to fish. However, I do not have to have a permit to purchase and concealed carry a gun in Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Nebraska or Kentucky. The same is true for open carry, except leave Oklahoma out.

But one is inherently more dangerous than the other. If you doubt that, then you take a fishing pole, and I'll take the gun, and let's see who wins. Ultimately, while no bill will be perfect, an attempt to try something — anything — would go a long way with people. Inaction is what we've had for 20 years. Let's try something this time and see if it works.

Summary Judgments

I liked how around 12:30 p.m., CNN split the front page of its website into five parts, since there were five major breaking stories (Supreme Court, Freddy Gray, German cinema shooting, Democratic sit-in, and the Brexit vote). It was a good look when there are multiple stories of equal importance.  •  •  •  I've been taking off the last week or two from running/eating well. I was going to start both again this week, but... it was Father's Day, then my mom brought cookie dough, so... I really need to get going again on both. I thought about another race, but nothing's jumped out to me so far until the fall.  •  •  •   Evie's new favorite word is "No." Normally, this would be a sigh from an exhausted parent, but I find it endearing because of how she says it. While Roland will be more forceful, hers is polite, almost respectful. It's almost a "no, but thanks for asking." I'm sure it'll annoy me soon, but for now, it's delightful.