We may have already seen the trial balloons of Clinton's vice president candidates, but I and you and probably no one you knew paid attention. Mass. Sen. Elizabeth Warren made her presidential endorsement on Rachel Maddow's show on MSNBC earlier this month. Former Va. Gov. and current Sen. Tim Kaine made the rounds on the Sunday morning talk shows. There are other names, of course, like Tom Vilsack, Tom Perez and Julian Castro (who I think would be a smart long-term pick).
Looking at the veep shortlists, I have no idea what Donald Trump will do. If he chooses someone with "experience," like Newt Gingrich, then he gets all their Washington baggage and no longer looks like as much of an outsider. If he chooses someone without "experience," like — I don't know — Ben Carson, then he's doing the same thing he jumped all over Obama for. If I had to guess, I'd go with someone like Fla. Gov. Rick Scott. He is from a battleground state, doesn't fall in line with GOP establishment, and is enough of an outsider to be a good fit for the Trump camp.
Who do I think for the Democrats? I think Clinton will avoid any senator whose seat in the Senate would be up for grabs, especially those in states with a GOP governor. That rules out Sherrod Brown, Cory Booker, and sadly Elizabeth Warren. (Honestly, I think Warren's better off as a senator than as a VP.) I think Clinton wants a Hispanic influence with her veep pick, but wants someone with experience. As much as Castro or Perez or even Calif. Rep. Xavier Becerra would be good picks, Tim Kaine is probably your frontrunner. He speaks Spanish fluently, and could be an attack dog against Trump on Univision, et al. He's against abortion personally, but doesn't believe it's a government decision (a rare, nuanced view). He was the elected governor of a battleground state, and he's admitted he's boring. But boring is good. Biden is boring. Dan Quayle was boring. Dick Cheney was boring. Al Gore was boring. Sarah Palin was NOT boring. Boring VP picks win.
What Trump needs is more boring. And because of who he is, I doubt he can do that. As I mentioned/predicted/wrote here a few weeks ago, Clinton has seen a polling bump after she secured the nomination. And this is the "new normal." She's now up about 6-7 points on Trump nationally, and leads in most polls out of Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire and Florida. If she wins most traditional blue states, and then adds Virginia, Ohio, and Florida, she could lose New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and ALL OTHER battleground states (Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, Michigan... even Arizona, where she has a polling lead) and still win the presidency.
Explaining Math is Hard
I love to read FiveThirtyEight's political coverage, and their analytical, math-based breakdowns of the election are usually pretty spot-on. Nate Silver and his team have Clinton at an 80 percent chance of winning. I've seen a few TV reports misinterpret this as "Silver predicts Clinton win," which isn't necessarily accurate. See, I had this whole section written, and then Silver and his team wrote exactly what I was thinking. Which is that a) 20 percent isn't nothing and b) percent chances are saying who's favored as of now, not who will win.
Summary Judgments
The Supreme Court overturning the Texas abortion laws (and by extension, others) wasn't a huge surprise to me. There was a comment by the Solicitor General during oral arguments in which he said the Texas restrictions would allow the right of abortion "only to exist in theory and not in fact." What was a surprise was the affirmative action ruling in Fisher II. Kennedy has not approved affirmative action in any case ever. And he did in this case. I think the Fisher II case gave a blueprint for how a college can arrange for diversity while also projecting fairness. Of note is that Scalia would not have made any difference: The former was a 5-3 vote, the latter would have been 4-4, meaning Texas' program would have remained intact. • • • I have not run since the 5K. I am sure I've been putting on weight, and I'm sure I need to get back in the saddle of running. My thing right now is finding a race to sign up for, and not all of them sound great. One sounded awesome.... free ice cream after the race! Then I started thinking about it, and dairy products are a terrible choice after running 3 miles. Why would that be offered? • • • Please stay, Kevin Durant. Please stay. • • • There will not be a News Judgments next week. I'm taking the week off, as Alyson and I are going on vacation to Chicago for about 4-5 days. The respective grandparents will split kid-watching duties. This is our first vacation we've taken since the kids were born. Also, Alyson's turning 30. Or 29 for the second time.... You'll have to ask her.
No comments:
Post a Comment