The first election in 1868 had practically no third party. I found 46 votes for "other." Nationwide. The next election was weird, though. The Republicans had a split: the "radicals" voting for incumbent President Grant while the "liberal Republicans" nominated newspaper publisher Horace Greeley. The Democrats were so desperate to beat Grant that they joined in and endorsed Greeley, too. It didn't matter. Greeley lost in a landslide, then died 24 days later before the electoral college counted... so he technically never got a single electoral college vote. The Liberal Republican movement died almost immediately, too. Through the 1888 election, single-issue parties would pop up: Prohibition Party, the Greenback Party (wishing for paper money), the Anti-Monopoly Party, the Union Labor Party and more. The Greenback Party did best in 1880, when they got nearly 3.3 percent of the vote.
It wasn't until 1892 when the first real third party evolved, largely from the ashes of many of the parties above. That third party was technically called the People's Party, but we know them better as the Populists. They actually won five (mostly Western) states (!) behind their nominee, James Weaver. They won 8.5 percent of the vote and 22 electoral college votes, which is a good showing for a third party. The Populists threw in with Democrat William Jennings Bryan for the next two elections (and a third in 1908), but since you've never had to learn "President Jennings Bryan" in class, you know how that ended. The best of the third parties was the Socialists, who would do a little better in 1904, almost reaching 3 percent behind famed Socialist Eugene Debs before falling back a little in 1908.
The next big year for third parties was 1912, and it is probably the best a third party has ever done. The third party in question was Theodore Roosevelt's Progressive (aka "Bull Moose") Party. It was truly a split of the Republican Party, and that cost them in the election. Roosevelt won six states (mostly north and west) and Republican William Howard Taft won two (the odd duo of Utah and Vermont), each with support in the mid-20 percents. That allowed Democrat Woodrow Wilson to coast to victory with a plurality — only 41.8 percent support, but won 40 states. Of note: Eugene Debs reached new heights during the peak of Socialism, netting 6 percent of the vote.
The third parties then collapsed. The best was the Socialists. Socialist Allan Benson at 3.2 percent on a platform of "We should take a national vote before we go to war." The next election, Eugene Debs was back and won 3.4 percent of the vote despite being in jail for encouraging draft dodging. In 1924, the Democrats split and the liberal wing joined up with the Progressives to some success. Their candidate, Robert La Follette, won his home state of Wisconsin and its 13 electoral college votes! He even got 16.6 percent of the vote, but even if the Democrats had been united, it wouldn't have mattered: incumbent Republican President Calvin Coolidge took 54 percent of the vote.
There wasn't a third party presence in 1928, and in 1932 the Socialists their standard 2-4 percent. In 1936, the Union Party nearly got 2 percent, but they didn't exist by the next election. There really weren't any third parties of note in the 1940 or 1944 elections. But by 1948, the first election post-FDR, the Democrats weren't as united. They split over civil rights, with Truman for it and S. Car. Gov. Strom Thurmond against. Thurmond would be the pick for the States' Rights Party, commonly called the Dixiecrats. He won four states, all in the South, but only took 2.4 percent of the vote. In fact, another third party, the Progressive/American Labor Party, also took 2.2 percent but won neither states nor electoral votes.
There were no third parties of note from 1952-1964, and then racists made a return in 1968. They weren't really a split from an existing party, but the American Independent Party was essentially the Dixiecrats reborn. They pushed George Wallace as their candidate. Wallace won five Deep South states (Ark., La., Ala., Miss., Ga., and one faithless elector from North Carolina) and 13.5 percent of the vote, robbing from Democrat Hubert Humphrey and handing the race to Republican Richard Nixon. A third party effectively gave us Nixon, who won by about 1 percent. In 1972, the American Independent Party took only 1.4 percent. Historical footnote: This was the first election of the Libertarian Party, and they won one electoral vote! It was because an electoral college voter who was pledged to Nixon voted instead for Libertarian John Hospers. Hospers's VP candidate was Tonie Nathan, who's the first female to receive an electoral college vote for either president or vice president. And I bet you've never heard of her.
There were no surprise third parties in 1976, but 1980 was a bit interesting. Frustrated about losing to Ronald Reagan, John Anderson split off some of the GOP vote by running as an independent. He got 6.6 percent of the vote, but no electoral college votes. One final note from this election: The Libertarian candidates got just over 1 percent, and just under 1 million votes. Their VP candidate was David Koch. Koch? YES, ONE OF THE KOCH BROTHERS (!). There weren't any notable third parties in the 1984 or 1988 elections, but one faithless elector decided to protest the electoral college in general by swapping her VP/Presidential picks. The Libertarians, under Ron Paul, saw their support cut in half.
Alright, we're at the first election I remember! In 1992, Ross Perot was the major third party candidate, running as an independent. In polls in June, he was leading the race over Bush and Clinton! But then he weirdly dropped out of the race for a weeks around July/August before coming back in. That damaged his credibility, but by popular vote, he did even better than the Dixiecrats, taking nearly 19 percent and about 19.7 million votes. He won no states and no electoral votes, though. In order to be on the ballot in some states, Perot created the Reform Party and eventually ran again in 1996, dropping to 8.4 percent support and about 8 million votes. In 2000, Ralph Nader won 2.4 percent (and, some say, cost Al Gore the election) for the fledgling Green Party. There was one faithless elector who voted for John Edwards in 2004, but no third party has had a significant impact. In fact, a third party hasn't broken 1 percent of the vote since Ralph Nader. Gary Johnson won 0.99 percent of the vote last election.
As you look back at the last 150 years of third party votes, they are either a) single-issue groups b) driven by an audacious personality or c) racist. Best-case scenario was finishing second (Teddy Roosevelt's Bull Moose Party), while worst-case scenario was inadvertently helping to elect Nixon.
Opinion time: That's why I'm skeptical of Gary Johnson and Jill Stein and others. Third parties have been fairly insignificant politically. It's one thing to not wish to support either party's candidate, but this is the President of the United States. If you can't imagine a person as President, don't vote for it.
Election Update
With the conventions over, it's clear that Hillary Clinton got not just a polls bump, but a big bump. From what I've seen, she's back to where she was in the polls in May/June, before the FBI Director announced no investigation while also denouncing her actions. Her polling has been consistently above Trump (who has had a particularly bad week, which I've decided to skip over) by at least 4-5 percent, if not nearing double digits in some polls. In my electoral college map, I've slowly been filling in the color of states that look clinched or have voted consistently one way over the last few decades. I have seven "toss-ups" left: Ohio, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Florida and Iowa (Most consider Pennsylvania and Virginia toss-ups, but Pa. hasn't voted Republican since 1988 and Virginia's polls have been consistent for a decent Clinton lead). What's notable is that by that calculation, Clinton only needs to win one of those seven toss-ups to win the presidency. She's at 269 electoral votes, and needs 270.
Summary Judgments
I've been really frustrated/anxious/whatever this month because of all the political things that have happened. Which is why this story from Gawker Media was very helpful. I needed it. • • • One more thing I couldn't figure out where to put in the third party write-up earlier: Roseanne Barr took nearly 62,000 votes in the last election under the "Peace and Freedom Party" banner. • • • America isn't the only one considering a female leader. The U.K. has Theresa May and now Tokyo has Yuriko Koike. But those have already been chosen... the U.S.A. still hasn't actually elected a female president. I heard someone say that the "woman barrier" could have been broken a long time ago. But there's a difference between "could have" and "did." A black baseball player could have played in the major leagues long before Jackie Robinson. But until Jackie Robinson, no one had. • • • A friend of mine posted a story written by someone younger than me (I'm getting old!) about how evangelicals are losing our generation. I probably agree with it more than I disagree, and even my disagreements are largely around the margins. However, I fear that the article will be interpreted by older generations as "millennial whining" — which only furthers the rift between generations. • • • There's a rare flower that only grows on a 20-acre island in a river in Illinois. It's the only place in the world it grows. The Kankakee Mallow (I interned at Kankakee's paper back in 2006) was thought to be extinct even 2-3 years ago, but now there are more than 1,000 plants thanks to conservation efforts. Check out this cute little video about it. • • • The kids have been happy, but whiny lately. They'll turn 2 in a few weeks, which is weirding me out. They're getting so big! • • • I've started running again, but have no real plan yet. I'm planning to run another 5K in October, I think.
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