Positively Thinking Positive

I asked for what you'd like to see here, and a reader (Grandma) asked that I write about the good points each made. It's hard to compare when candidates don't stick to the same topics. Except they sort of did recently, as they both talked economic policy during a speech last week. This is about as "apples to apples" as we get, since they were also both made in Detroit. So this week, I'm going to talk positively about what each said in their big economic policy speech.

Donald Trump
He talks about how "Our roads and bridges fell into disrepair." I very much agree with this. Infrastructure has taken short shrift for a long time. We built an amazing highway system, but have not reinvested in it. Infrastructure can be what takes us to the next level as a country, but we have to do "boring" things, like build roads and airports and commuter railroads. I'm a big infrastructure wonk, and Note: I'm ignoring the latter half of his sentence ("yet we resettled millions of refugees at taxpayer expense" for being both a) false on the "millions" part and b) not how budgets work). Think positive, Andrew! Positive! 

He also talks about reducing income tax. In theory, this is a good point on the macro level. Yay! Fewer taxes! (In practice, this is often terrible. See: Sam Brownback and Kansas.) He also talks about reducing "special interest loopholes," which is probably a good idea. These are both great ideas in theory but potentially difficult when actually in practice. But in theory: Good ideas!

Tax simplification is a good idea. I'm for the idea of making it easier. Otherwise, we're buttressing a financial services industry that has become more and more assembly line in nature. The tax system should be easy enough for anyone to file their own taxes. He gives some specifics on the number of tax brackets and the exact number for each. Good details to have, honestly.

He has a plan to allow parents to fully deduct the "average cost of childcare spending" from their taxes. I don't know what he means by "average cost," but that sounds like a nice idea. I'm already paying a lot in childcare, I don't want to be taxed on that as "income," too.

He mentions reforming the Veterans Health Administration, which is sorely needed. Devil's in the details, but there are simple fixes that are possible and overdue.

Hillary Clinton
She spends a lot of time early talking about what America does right as an economy. This is one of things that makes you go, "Oh, yeah. America is awesome." We have the best schools in the world, we have the best tech companies, etc.

She also talks about modernizing infrastructure, so points there. She goes a few steps further: expand affordable housing, repair schools and repair failing water systems (like the nearby Flint). She also wants to connect everyone to broadband Internet by 2020. I think that's ambitious, but it's a good goal. She also has the goal of a resilient, clean energy power grid. Its subtext is jobs: Building power plants, building wind and solar energy systems, etc. all will create the need for jobs.

She has an idea for an infrastructure bank to serve as seed money for private sector investment. I like that idea. Sometimes a little push is all it takes to get over the edge, and this would incentivize private  companies to create jobs. I like it. Her "Make it in America" partnership calls for $10 billion in supporting American manufacturing and scientific research. Those are seemingly unrelated, but pushing scientific research and manufacturing are kind of bulletproof.

Perhaps the thing that hit home most for me is her call for tax credits, training, paid apprenticeships and more that emphasize the trades. She calls for a national campaign to dignify skill straining, and I think it's right: not everyone needs to go to college. A welder can make more than a journalist, but one requires a degree and the other requires a certification. This was a big push that I was fully behind as an editor in Pittsburg: Provide training for skills/trades, which are good jobs with good money. But we have to prepare people for those fields and promote them.

She makes mention of an "exit tax" for companies looking to move overseas, requiring corporations that outsource jobs to pay back tax breaks, and the Buffett Rule -- multi-millionaires should not pay a lower tax rate than their secretaries. These are all good, specific ideas.

Finally, she talks about making quality, affordable childcare available and limiting the costs to a percentage of family income. Equal pay for equal work. Paid family leave. Those (especially the latter two) should be priorities for every legislator and candidate. *Note: She says that the Trump childcare-would-be-tax-free plan would help the rich more, and I don't know enough about it to say if that's true. 

Other Thoughts
The things that I didn't hear are about the changing economy. You know why coal companies aren't doing so hot? Because we discovered natural gas is cleaner and cheaper. It's not because of regulations. You know why manufacturing has declined? It's because we have new and better machinery and technologies that lower the demand for American labor and American products (Also, other countries are catching up). These are tidal shifts, and no amount of promises or platitudes will change those. Candidates need to be addressing these shifts and talk about how to move forward rather than tell people what they want to hear, and that is a complaint for me about both candidates.

Both candidates seem to imply that free trade is bad. I'd like to hear some proof from either rather than spout things like "trade agreements kill jobs!" It's also kind of weird in general to imagine that either would continue to detest free trade once they become president. Trump would say something like "Those deals were bad, but this deal is good," while Clinton would say that the deals strengthen our relationships with allies without harming American workers. In short, I want to hear WHY free trade is bad and what makes a good deal.

Two more things, one good and one bad for Hillary (she had more specific policies in her speech):

First, while free college is a fun idea Hillary threw out, I think it goes too far. That's not to say college should be as expensive as it is now: We've shifted the burden for funding college away from a 70:30 state:student ratio to closer to 30:70, that can mean college is either for those who can afford it or those who are willing to go into mountains of debt. I think a middle road exists. Let's see if we can lower the cost burden of college and reduce the interest rates on student loans to reasonable standards, but still have students be accountable and have some buy-in to their education. I am, however, OK with free community college or skills/trade courses. That would incentivize skills/trade courses.

The good thing for Hillary is her idea for a public option for Obamacare. This is one of two pieces (expanded Medicare nationwide as the other) that the Affordable Care Act needs to be successful. The public option helps defend against companies like Aetna throwing their weight around, it provides a minimum acceptable coverage, and — by the nature of being a crappy public option — incentivizes people to get better health care through their work or on their own. If you don't like Obamacare (I have friends who hate it, even as they... rely on it for their insurance), then I'd love to see what you'd like to do instead. I've yet to hear someone say HOW they'd replace Obamacare beyond broad goals.

Race Review

I'm pretty slow to move a state out of the toss-up category, but I'm ready to do that with New Hampshire. They've had four polls since the conventions, and all show a nearly 10-point lead or high single digit lead for Hillary Clinton. So I'm moving New Hampshire blue. Why is that significant? Because by my tracking, that puts Clinton over 270 electoral college votes. That would make her the next President, even if she loses all the toss-up states.

I'm also moving both Georgia and Missouri out of red state category and into toss-up. They've both had several polls in the low single digits since the convention. This is backed up by evidence in polls, but also anecdotally: I've seen a bunch of commercials for Hillary/anti-Trump on local TV. The Clinton campaign wouldn't be buying those expensive ads if they didn't think they had a chance at making a difference. Toss-up states: Ohio, Arizona, Nevada, Iowa, Georgia, Missouri, Florida and North Carolina. States close to moving in one direction or the other: South Carolina, North Carolina and Florida.

Goodbye, Gawker — Sort Of

Let me be as frank as possible: I was wrong. Gawker will not survive their lost lawsuit against Hulk Hogan. While I think they had a strong legal case for appeal, the fallout from the original trial (read: bankruptcy) caused them to put the company up for auction. Although they had a buyer lined up, that buyer was outbid. Univision (!) purchased Gawker Media's assets and staff.

They'll keep the popular sites Deadspin, Jezebel, Gizmodo, Kotaku, Jalopnik, Lifehacker, et al. However, it was announced that the main site, Gawker.com, would be shuttered as of next week. Gawker played with fire. They got burned. Univision was able to control the burning by saving what still had value.

Summary Judgments

An Olympic story that caught my eye: We should be talking more about South African runner Wayde Van Niekerk. He just set a new world record in the 400m run (one lap around the track) at 43.03, beating Michael Johnson's record by .15 seconds. He's the only man in history to have a 100m dash under 10 seconds (9.8), a 200m run under 20 seconds, and a 400m run under 44 seconds. It's pretty incredible, and he's a person most Americans have never heard of.  •  •  •  I saw an interesting mathematics idea this week: Take any number and, if it's even, divide it by 2. If it's odd, multiply by 3 and add one. If you keep doing this, the number will eventually get to 1. But mathematicians a) aren't sure if this is true and b) can't seem to find any observable patterns. But it's simple enough that anyone can understand it yet complex enough that professionals can spend their entire lives working on it, yet not be able to unlock it. It's called the Collatz Conjecture.   •  •  •  This is an incredible picture. If you are not moved, you have no heart.  •  •  •  This was an interesting read by Vox's Ezra Klein on why the press is harsh on Donald Trump.  •  •  •  This is exactly why I hate voter ID restrictions and limits on voting. North Carolina GOP legislators sought data about how black people vote in the state, then proposed restrictions on those methods (early voting, voter IDs, etc.). Their move was thrown out by a court for targeting a minority population — which often votes Democratic. And now the NC GOP is trying to make early voting as inconvenient as possible and "make party line changes to early voting." It's sickening.  •  •  •  Roland and Evie are going to get their first haircut this weekend. After two years, it's long enough to make someone think we had two girls.  •  •  •  Evie can count to 11! And probably 13! But she skips 5, for some unknown reason.  •  •  •  I've been running more lately. But I also want to play Pokemon Go while I run for game reasons. This has meant my running gets interrupted by 10-15 seconds of walking. I HAVE NO REGRETS.