The Other Major Race

We spend a lot of time thinking about the race for President that we forget about the other major race going on in the legislative branch. While the House likely won't change hands, the Senate is in real danger of flipping from Republican control to Democratic control. I want to take a look at why that is, break it down a bit, and make a prediction about 2018.

First of all, Senate seats are up for re-election every six years. The current balance is 44 Democrats, 54 Republicans. Maine Sen. Angus King and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders call themselves independents, but they both caucus with Democrats, so consider Democrats at 46. Also, because of the presidential election, the "tie-breaker" vote could change hands: If Clinton wins, Democrats only need to change 4 seats to swing the Senate; if not, Democrats must aim for 5.

In short, the Senate could flip this year because there are more Republican seats up for grabs and it coincides with a presidential election. Presidential elections tend to draw more voters, especially from people who may not know their senator, but sure as heck know who's running for President. Because of that, some tight races may get more down-ballot attention, especially in opposite-color states or swing states.

So what do I mean by "more Republican seats up for grabs?" Literally that. Before we get into the analysis, Democrats will have a 36:30 seat advantage. There are 34 Senate races to be determined this year, and Republicans occupy 24 of those seats. Further, several of those Republican-held seats are in "blue states" or swing states. The color of a few races are already decided: Two open seats in Maryland and California only have Democrats remaining. Further, if you add in the seats widely considered safe or likely (I use a consensus from major political science-inclined poll aggregators: Larry J. Sabato of the University of Virginia, Real Clear Politics, Cook Political Report, and 538.com when available), you have at least 12 safe GOP seats (including Okla. Sen. James Lankford and Kan. Sen. Jerry Moran) and 9 safe Democrat seats. So now we're at 45 Democrats and 42 Republicans; 13 seats remain, and Democrats need 5 to flip the Senate. I've got them in three categories: Pretty Obvious, Leaning/Trending, or No Clue.

Pretty Obvious
Georgia Incumbent Sen. Johnny Isakson has a clear lead. He's on the scale between "leans GOP" and "safe GOP" according to the aggregators. No poll shows him in trouble. Looks like it'll stay red.

Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley is also considered "lean GOP" or "likely GOP." Polls show him up by 7-10 percent. He looks safe.

Wisconsin is the first change. Ron Johnson (R) beat Russ Feingold (D) six years ago. Now, it's pretty clear Feingold will take back his seat. Feigned is up by double digits in all the polls, and two of the three consider it a "lean Dem" seat. Democrats +1

Illinois is another possible/probable change. Republican Sen. Mark Kirk is close, but he's trailed in most of the polls so far to Dem. Tammy Duckworth. She's a woman and a Democrat in a year in which Illinois is going to vote a woman Democrat for President. Two of the three have this flipping already. This is the most likely to be in the below category, though. Democrats +1

Arizona Sen. John McCain is one of the longest-sitting senators. However, Arizona is suddenly a swing state, since Trump is disliked by the Hispanic community. McCain looked in trouble in several polls just before the conventions, but the most recent polls show a comfortable lead. It'd be a shocker if this changed hands.

Leaning
Missouri Sen. Roy Blunt has lead in every poll that I've seen, which is good. But always by low to mid single digits, which is bad. He's very unpopular in the state (one had him at 31% approval), and most of his recent leads in the polls have been within the margin of error. If Clinton somehow wins Missouri, the down-ballot effect might help boost Democrat challenger Jason Kander. Lean GOP; no change

Indiana is an interesting race. Former Democrat Sen. Evan Bayh said he wasn't running again in 2010, which allowed GOP Sen. Dan Coats to pick up the seat. Now it's the opposite: Coats isn't running, and Bayh wants his seat back. While Indiana will likely go red in November, Bayh has a high single-digit lead in the few polls there have been. Lean Democrat; Democrats +1

Ohio looked like a potential pick-up for Democrats, but I don't think so. Republican Sen. Rob Portman has led in every poll against Democrat Ted Strickland taken since July 4. More recent polls show a widening gap in the mid-high single digits. Lean GOP; no change

Florida is close and considered a toss-up by everyone. But a closer look at the polls show it's not. Marco Rubio has led every poll against Democrat Patrick Murphy since mid-June. The size of that lead is a matter of debate. That Rubio has a lead is not. Lean GOP; no change

No Clue
Nevada Dem. and Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid is retiring. His seat is hotly contested.  Nevada is a toss-up on the presidential election. Polls show it's anyone's game between the name recognition of Joe Heck (R) and Reid's hand-picked successor, Catherine Cortez Masto. A slight edge to Heck, probably, but not by much. If Heck, +1 GOP. If Cortez Masto, no change

New Hampshire will probably be determined by the way it votes for president. It is leaning Democrat, and Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan is running against incumbent Sen. Kelly Ayotte. Ayotte is trying to walk a tightrope by saying she's voting for Trump, but not endorsing him. The few polls there are show a slight edge for Hassan, but not big enough to say for sure. If Hassan, +1 Democrat. If Ayotte, no change

North Carolina is another that may be determined by the presidential vote. It's a toss-up state on the presidential level. Incumbent GOP Sen. Richard Burr has a fight on his hands with Democrat Deborah Ross. Most polls show a 3-5 point advantage for Burr, but a few reputable polls show her with a small lead. I think Burr has a very slight edge. If Burr, no change. If Ross, +1 Democrat.

Pennsylvania is a close race. Incumbent GOP Sen. Pat Toomey looks to be in trouble. There haven't been many recent (last two weeks) polls, but Democratic challenger Katie McGinty had a slight lead in almost all the recent polls. The state is likely voting for Clinton, so McGinty may get a down-ballot boost. McGinty has a slight edge. If McGinty, +1 Democrat. If Toomey, no change. 

Bottom line: Democrats look likely to pick up three seats. If you split the "No Clue" seats, you get one more seat for Democrats, giving them 50 — and the majority if Clinton wins the presidency.

One more issue is that even if the Democrats win the Senate majority in 2016, I predict they lose it in 2018. I'm making that prediction already! Why? The same math that works against the GOP this cycle works against Democrats in 2018, as well as the mid-term backlash against a potential Democrat president (Clinton). There are 33 seats up in 2018, and only eight of them are sitting Republicans (two are independents that caucus as Democrats). Further, five Democrat seats are in red states (ND, MO, WV, MT, IN). A few closer looks I've seen indicate 12 "toss-ups," and 10 of those are sitting Democrats.

Election update

I haven't seen enough strong indications from poll data to move any states from red to blue, or blue to red, or toss-up to anything. Missouri is definitely a toss-up state. It appears either Clinton's post-convention bounce is ending or Trump's new advisors have kept him from saying anything really crazy lately.

There's one other thing I wanted to note here, because it required some explanation. By my count, Clinton's got 272 electoral college votes in the bag, despite having states that account for 273 electoral college votes. Why the disparity? Maine and Nebraska both divide electoral college votes by district. Nebraska is red, Maine is blue. But Nebraska has a district (Omaha and suburbs) and Maine has a district (Bangor, but not Portland or Augusta) that are considered toss-ups this year. Although Maine will likely go blue, the second district is not yet secured. The opposite is true for Nebraska.

Summary Judgments

It was probably pushed to the world page, or maybe in the "other headlines," but Colombia reaching a peace deal with FARC is a big deal. The ongoing civil war with FARC meant that there were two Colombias, effectively. A peaceful one in which the drug problem had dropped dramatically, and another that was communism-at-gunpoint, in which drugs were still a big industry. This ends a 50-year conflict. I think we need to celebrate when countries are no longer at war.  •  •  •  Clinton has (surprisingly) not called Donald Trump a bigot in public. But Trump has called her a bigot multiple times lately. John Oliver said it best recently: "Because Trump hasn't said one crazy thing; he's said thousands of crazy things, each of which blunts the effect of the others. It's the bed of nails principle. If you step on one nail, it hurts you. If you step on a thousand nails, no single one stands out and you're fine."  •  •  •   The Flying Butt left skid marks. Make your own jokes about this story.  •  •  •  It's an absolute shame that the Chicago White Sox will now be playing in.... UGH.... Guaranteed Rate Field. That is probably the new worst stadium name in all of pro sports.  •  •  •   The kids are 2 now. I'm having a lot of feels. Roland's been very cuddly during storms, also giving me more feels. The party for them is this weekend, so lots of feels to be had.  •  •  •  I have identified a race to sign up for in October. Now I just need to run more often, since Roland's bad sleep of late has meant I am less likely to wake up early and run.